First Five Play In Midwest Matchup

Brewers vs. Guardians, 1:40 ET

A Midwest battle in the middle of the day takes place today. We've seen a ton of really good teams - ones that are going to run away with the division - and we've seen teams like the two in today's game that will likely struggle all year to grab the division and we probably will get a late season battle for that playoff spot. Yes, the Brewers and Guardians have very similar paths and they come crashing together today.

The Brewers are back above .500 and they keep ebbing and flowing above and below the line. This isn't something that I would call unexpected as their hitting was always going to be inconsistent and their pitching staff has taken a collective step back. Milwaukee still can steal the division this season and has played decent enough to stay close to the top in a division that is up for grabs. Corbin Burnes is taking the ball for the Brewers in the rubber match. Burnes won the Cy Young a couple of years ago, but he isn't pitching all that well this season. He has a 3.96 ERA but has been better on the road. He had a tough loss in his most recent start where he allowed seven earned runs over five innings. That was his first non-quality start in five outings. He has shown a lot of success against the Guardians hitters in the past, holding them to just .130.

The NL Central is up for grabs, but so is the AL Central. I wouldn't call any team in either division very good, but the Guardians had expectations to be significantly better than they are. After making the playoffs last season, they were expected to improve behind their pitching staff. The hitting was always going to be questionable - it even was last year. The Guardians are under .500 right now but are getting some solid pitching performances. One of their better pitchers right now is Aaron Civale, even though he has only thrown 33.2 innings. This month, he has allowed just six runs over 21 innings. He does allow too many walks for my liking and has struggled more in home starts than road starts. The Brewers hitters have batted just .136 against him in 22 at-bats.

I guess the question kind of becomes in this one which starter is going to be worse. They both have decent track records against the opposing hitters. Civale hasn't been great at home, but Burnes has been in worse form currently. Still, I like Burnes in this one mostly because I find him a tad more reliable this is a coinflip game at -110 both ways. I'm going to cut that down a bit and focus on the first five and take the Brewers at -115.

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