First Five Play For Guardians And Red Sox

Guardians vs. Red Sox, 1:35 ET

There are some franchises that you look at and think "How can they be this bad for this long?" Teams like the Pirates, Angels, Athletics, continuously dwell at the bottom of the market for baseball. Some of it is supposedly about budget, and others might just be bad luck. On the other side of it, there are teams like the Red Sox that spend money and get mixed results, and the Guardians that don’t spend money and find ways to remain relevant year after year. Today those two franchises square off in the final game of a four-game set. 

Cleveland is one of those teams that you just can’t really figure out when they are going to be at the top of the division, and when they will start selling pieces off. They started selling last deadline and this year was expected that they would be an afterthought in the division. So far, they’ve started the season with a very strong performance, and in this division, they could ride this success all year and make the playoffs. Collectively the team is hitting almost .260 and they are scoring over five runs per game. Sure there have been some stinkers in there, but for now, the team is playing very well. Their pitching, a staple of the organization, remains excellent as they have an ERA around three. Carlos Carrasco is taking the hill today and he has put together a decent campaign so far with a 3.55 ERA. The Guardians have been a bit cautious with him allowing only 80 or fewer pitches in the first two starts and then 88 pitches in his most recent. He did issue five walks in the last outing and certainly needs to get that under control. Red Sox hitters have limited experience against him, but they do have success, going 6-for-17. 

Boston had rather low expectations coming into this season and they were expected to also be an afterthought in their division. I still think they will be lucky to finish the season with a .500 record. Simply put, the Red Sox don’t have enough talent on offense or pitching-wise to make a run at the division. Their team is only hitting around .230, but they are getting about four runs per game which is a respectable amount. Today, they are sending out Cooper Criswell to the mound for today’s game. Criswell has just one start under his belt this season, going four innings against the Angels and allowing just two earned runs. Criswell looked strong in those innings navigating his way through five hits and one walk. No one has faced Criswell on the Guardians, so he may be able to get through the order once without much damage. 

This is a tighter matchup than I thought it would be. Most of the time I think that there is one clear choice, but I honestly wouldn’t blame you for taking either side in this game. I think the best look here is to take the under for the first five innings. I think both starters should get through three innings potentially scoreless, and then should have a chance to close out the last two innings with limited damage. The first five innings total is 4.5, I'll take the under at +105. If you wanted to do under 3.5 through three innings that is -166. 

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