First Five Look And Player Prop For Cubs Vs. Padres

Cubs vs. Padres, 6:40 ET

One of the hardest things about baseball, or really any sport you bet on for that matter, is that you can't just rely on the past or past performances to dictate what will happen in the future. Sure, there are times that it can guide you, or even be correct - but not a predictor. Players change, injuries happen, rest/scheduling cause issues, etc. There are a ton of things that mean you need to take each game for its own entity and not focus on what previously happened. Those are things I told myself before picking this game between the Cubs and the San Diego Padres. 

The Cubs are off to a nice start, but they don't look that much different from last season. They fell just short of the playoffs last year and this year they probably will compete for a playoff spot once again. My guess is the division won't be theirs, but a Wild Card spot should be within reach if everything goes well. One thing that will need to change is that they have their pitchers heal from injuries. They also could use Kyle Hendricks, today's starter, returning to form. Hendricks has had a terrible start to the season in two starts. He has allowed five earned runs in both of his starts and only completed a total of 7.2 innings. His WHIP right now is 2.74. For those not familiar with the stat, that means he is averaging almost three baserunners per inning from walks and hits. This is not the first time that he has struggled to start a season - it happened last year as well, and he fixed it up, but he certainly is trending in the wrong direction. Padres hitters are 16-for-64 against him with Manny Machado is doing the bulk of the damage. 

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 17: Cody Bellinger of the Chicago Cubs takes the field in a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Wrigley Field on June 17, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Getty Images)

I can only tell you so many times about how the Padres are one of the biggest underperforming teams in all of baseball, and have been for years. I will try to not bring it up all season. In fact, I want to give them a bit of credit as they are at least a team that has gone out of their way to reshuffle the deck and see if they can find a way to get their team to work. As of now, the cards aren't coming up the way they want, but if they can get some momentum behind them right now in the early portion of the year, they could ride that success a bit longer and find some winning ways. Today they are throwing their newest chip out there, Dylan Cease, a former Cy Young finalist who is replacing their Cy Young they've allowed to walk (Blake Snell). Cease is the opposite of Hendricks with his WHIP being at just 0.94 after 10.2 innings pitched this season. 

At the time of this writing, player props haven't been released, but Ian Happ has gone 1-for-14 against Cease so I'd recommend betting an under on his hits in this one. As far as the actual game, I think we see the Padres probably win this game, but they are just outside my line I am willing to give out. I instead will play them through five innings to win by the run line. Cease is a better pitcher than Hendricks and I think Kyle continues to struggle here. 

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