Fight Night: Saul 'Canelo' Álvarez vs. Terence 'Bud' Crawford Best Bets, Odds

We get my two favorite words in sports Saturday: Fight Night. Saul Canelo Álvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) puts his undisputed super middleweight belts on the line against Terence Bud Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs) at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. For the first time in my life, a mega-fight is affordable, thanks to Netflix streaming the bout. 

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Canelo is a -160 favorite and Bud is a +135 underdog at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of writing. I'm betting Álvarez Saturday. He is two years younger (37-35), while having more ring experience with a better resume, and being the busier and bigger fighter. Canelo has fought seven times since 2022, whereas Crawford has fought three times over that span. 

Crawford’s Challenge at a Higher Weight

This is Crawford's second fight in a heavier class than welterweight. The first was his last time in the squared circle in August 2024, when Bud beat Israil Madrimov by unanimous decision in a junior middleweight bout at 154 pounds. Obviously, Crawford's punches were less effective vs. the bigger fighter, and Madrimov landed 10 more power punches (65-55), per CompuBox. 

Álvarez and Bud weighed in at 168 pounds for this fight, 21 pounds heavier than the welterweight division. That's a huge difference in combat sports because these guys are chiseled. Some boxers lose speed when they bulk up, and don't carry their punching power in the heavier class. Canelo has a great chin, and Crawford won't knock him out. 

Vegas Judges and Canelo’s History

This is a big problem for Bud, who will have to push the fight to avoid a judges' decision or to win rounds with activity. But Álvarez plays great defense and is a fantastic counterpuncher. By opening up, Crawford leaves himself open for body blows, which could hurt him more since he is the smaller fighter and impact his stamina in the later rounds. 

Also, Crawford had better knock Canelo out because it's tough to win by decision against Álvarez in Vegas. He got a controversial draw on judge C.J. Ross's scorecard in his majority decision loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. Gennady Golovkin landed more punches in 10 of 12 rounds in a draw vs. Canelo in the first fight of their trilogy. Both fights were obviously in Vegas. 

Saul 'Canelo' Álvarez lands a punch on Gennady Golovkin during a world middleweight boxing championship fight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports)

Lastly, the betting markets are different in combat sports compared to team sports. The public tends to bet favorites in the latter and underdogs in the former. A great example of this is Mayweather, who was 50-0, and the sportsbooks "needed" him to win because bettors kept backing the underdogs. So, don't get "sticker shock" from Canelo's moneyline price. 

Best Bets: Canelo Álvarez moneyline (-160) at Caesars Sportsbook and on points (+138) at BetMGM

My betting strategy here is to wager 0.8 units (u) on Canelo winning outright, and wager another 0.5u on Álvarez to win by decision. Neither has been knocked out, and Canelo has a seven-fight streak decided by the judges (6-1). 

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