Fight Night: Saul 'Canelo' Álvarez Vs. Jaime Munguia Picks, Best Bets

Saul ‘Canelo' Álvarez (60-2-2, 39 KOs), Ring Magazine’s 4th-ranked pound-for-pound boxer, defends his undisputed super middleweight championship against the 5th-ranked fighter in the division, Jaime Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs) Saturday, May 4th. The pay-per-view begins on DAZN at 5 p.m. ET. Ring walks for Canelo-Munguia is roughly 8 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. 

This All-Mexican bout will be Canelo's 9th on Cinco De Mayo weekend. Álvarez only lost one of those fights, to Dmitry Bivol by unanimous decision, in 2022. But, Saul stepped up in weight to fight for Bivol's WBA (Super) light heavyweight belt. His only other loss was to all-time great Floyd Mayweather in 2013. Canelo is the biggest draw in boxing with notable wins over Shane Mosley, Gennadiy Golovkin, Miguel Cotto, and Amir Khan. 

Tale of the Tape: Canelo Álvarez Vs. Jaime Munguia

The odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:45 p.m. ET. 

The tale of the tape for Canelo Álvarez vs. Jaime Munguia in Las Vegas Saturday, May 4th. (Photo courtesy of Premier Boxing via X)

Despite Canelo saying he wouldn't fight any more Mexican fighters, Munguia's accomplishments forced Álvarez to change his mind. Canelo, like all boxers in this era, chooses opponents that'll help his legacy. Yet, since Álvarez's all-time legacy is already cemented, he took this fight against Munguia as a celebration of Mexico's rich boxing history. 

Munguia can follow the blueprint Bivol drew up in his unanimous decision win over Canelo. Bivol is also 6-foot-0 with a 72-inch reach, and he used his jab to keep Álvarez from getting on the inside. CompuBox stats said that Bivol landed more punches in all 12 rounds of that fight and nearly doubled Canelo up. 

However, the judges scored the 1st four rounds in favor of Álvarez despite the one-sided fight. This is always a problem and something you should remember when betting on boxing. Even if Munguia out-works Canelo, he could still lose. Again, Álvarez is the biggest draw in the sport, and judges tend to favor the more popular fighter. 

Jaime Munguia hits John Ryder causing him to stumble into the ropes during their bout at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. (Patrick Breen/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Nonetheless, maybe Munguia can bank some early rounds with his reach while Canelo is still trying to find the distance. Munguia has four KO/TKO wins in his last five fights. He beat John Ryder by TKO to retain the WBC Silver super middleweight title in January. Whereas Álvarez went the distance with Ryder and beat him by unanimous decision. 

Canelo's previous four fights have been decided by the judges and his last KO/TKO in the 11th round vs. Caleb Plant to unify the super middleweight belts in 2021. He is only 33 years old, but Saul turned pro at 15, so he has a lot of mileage. Meaning, perhaps Álvarez doesn't have the same knockout power he once did. 

Regardless, the most likely outcome is "Canelo winning by decision or technical decision" (-105) at DraftKings. He has far more championship experience and a much better resume. That said, I give Munguia a "puncher's chance" and, a legitimate shot at winning by decision by scoring points with his reach (+380). 

BET: $21 on Canelo Álvarez by decision/technical decision (-105) to profit $20 and $10 on Jaime Munguia's moneyline (+380) to profit $38 at DraftKings. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.