Fast Pace, Good Offense, Back The Total

Alabama vs. Kentucky, 4:00 ET

Few matchups should be better on the schedule than this one between Alabama and Kentucky. There are a ton of games, so I am not saying this will be the best game of the day, but on paper this one should be a treat for everyone watching. We get explosive offenses, two SEC teams, and both ranked coming into this game. What's not to love? Well, let's take a moment, see where the teams are coming from in this game, and how we should play this battle between two talented squads. 

In the last article that I had a play with Alabama involved, I took them -8.5 over Florida as the two battled in Alabama. The Crimson Tide did win that game, but they went to overtime and couldn't cover the game, only winning by five point. Once it went to overtime there wasn't much hope anyway, but it was nice seeing them pull the game out nonetheless. It was also arguably the best game of the year between the two teams as they battled it out. The question has to be how much does Alabama have in the tank for this game? Winning against Florida was on Wednesday, but that has to take a bit out of them, and now they face Kentucky on the road in a hostile environment. This was the first overtime game for Alabama this season, so we can't see how they performed in the next game for comparison. What we can expect is much of the same - Mark Sears will likely lead the way for scoring, and they will use two guards to supplement the scoring. In the front court, there isn't much to speak of for Alabama. They rebound pretty well collectively, but I won't say they have one guy who cleans the glass better than anyone else. The biggest key here will be to out-rebound Kentucky and to not turn the ball over. Both are concerns when playing on the road for Alabama. 

John Calipari rants after beating Auburn. (Credit: USA Today Sports Network)

For years, Kentucky was blamed for ruining college basketball - well, not Kentucky specifically, but John Calipari. The complaint was that he was the face of the one-and-done era. For the past five or so years, Kentucky has been good, but hasn't had the dominance that they once did. Calipari continues to develop teams and players. Have you seen the picture of him at the All-Star game with basically half of the players posing with him because he coached them all. The team has been fine this year and probably has another couple of draft players for the NBA, but right now they are 18-8 and just 8-5 in the conference. They are 2-2 over their last four games and 4-4 over their past eight. Their most recent game was at LSU, one where they had a heartbreaking loss of 75-74. Similar to Alabama, this close contest takes a lot out of you so it will be interesting to see how much they have left in the tank. The Wildcats are also led by their guards and Antonio Reeves looks like one of the better scoring guards in the country. He also rebounds fairly well and is good at not turning the ball over. He doesn't find open teammates much though so you kind of know what to expect when he touches the ball. Tre Mitchell might be the key to this game. He is a forward who averages 12 points per game and 7.5 rebounds. If he can exceed either, or both, of those numbers, Kentucky could win this game with ease. 

This total is a high number for a college team, but there is a reason for that. Kentucky averages 87 points per game and Alabama averages 91. Both of them allow 77 points. Let's put it this way, this shouldn't be a defensive game at all. I expect both teams to put very little effort in defensively until they really need to. At that point I would expect both teams to have enough points that we will see the over already cashed. Back the over in this one and enjoy the offensive explosion.