Fade The Phenom: Take Cardinals To Beat Skenes

Pirates vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

It was a wash of a day yesterday as I gave out two baseball plays and went 1-1. The second was a run line play and a fairly easy cash. The first was a play based on the starting pitcher and the fact that I expected a tired Yankees team to be taking the field. They might have been tired, but they got the job done as they beat the Royals 4-2 with not much trouble. We will stay in Missouri today as we focus on the Pirates taking on the Cardinals in St. Louis.

It has been about five days so that means we get another Paul Skenes sighting. If Skenes is on the hill, that means we have to write about him. Skenes, Caitlin Clark, Livvy Dunne, and all LeBron James related coaching searches are a journalistic requirement to write about. Though I’m joking, if there is an opportunity to write relevant content about a name people will engage with more, it works out for everyone. Before we get to Skenes, let’s talk a bit about the Pirates overall. For the season, Pittsburgh remains one of the clubs that is battling for a .500 record. Unfortunately, it seems like most of the teams in baseball are doing that – while that is good for parity, that also means that it is difficult to judge who is a true contender from someone that will eventually just sell pieces at the trade deadline. I’ve said it before, but the Pirates are likely a couple of years away from truly contending in the NL Central. The pieces are starting to come, and having a generational talent taking the ball every five days is a great place to start. Skenes has now made five starts and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of them. When he does give up runs, it seems like it is due to home runs rather than teams stringing together a bunch of hits and walks. He has three quality starts and has struck out at least seven hitters in four of his five outings. This is the first time the Cardinals will have to battle against the phenom. 

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - MAY 29: Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches in the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on May 29, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan.  (Photo by Rick Osentoski/Getty Images)

Rember a second ago when I said there are a lot of teams that are hovering around .500? The Cardinals are one of those clubs. They started the year looking like they weren’t going to improve on the disaster that was last season, but they have since started clicking and are 31-33. This isn’t to say they are making a big run or nearing the top of the division – they currently sit in fourth place, and will likely need a good stretch of a couple of weeks in order to move up and put any real pressure on the Brewers. I do think that the Cardinals will invest in their club and try to improve this year at the deadline. I just don’t see them packing it in and hoping for next year. Today they send out Miles Mikolas to the hill. I’ve been a fan of Mikolas in the past, but realistically, he hasn’t been very good for a couple of years now. Currently, he has a 5.32 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP. The WHIP really isn’t terrible, so it is possible he is pitching better than the results are showing. He’s only walked 14 hitters this season, so most of the damage is coming from hits. He has turned in a quality start in five of his past seven outings, so he is also pitching better. Maybe he has turned a corner? Pirates hitters are hitting .286 against him with Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes having the most success.

The first thing to look at with any Skenes start is his strikeout total. In this game, he has a total of 7.5 at +100. The Cardinals are 16th in team strikeouts this season. They are close to the Giants and Dodgers, both teams that Skenes has faced – he struck out eight Dodgers and three Giants. I’d probably lay off of this. Instead, I think that Skenes is getting a bit too much love here in the first half of the game. The Cardinals are +130 at home against a good pitcher with a pitcher who has a bad history, but is pitching well now. I like the value here. It isn’t the most intuitive bet, but -166 for the Pirates is inflated. Back the Cardinals through five here. 

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