Fade Or Follow The Public: Thursday's MLB Games

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Red Sox (-148) vs. Orioles (+140) 3:00 p.m. ET

It's the battle of the AL East this afternoon as the East is wide open. The Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays are all one game back from the Orioles. The public believes that the Red Sox will end up tied for the East after today, as 64% of bets are on Boston's Moneyline. The Orioles had an impressive first series against the Red Sox. They swept them and won by an average of 4.3 runs. Then their offense disappeared, and they followed up those wins by losing two out of three against the Yankees. In the three-game series against the Yankees, the Orioles scored only 6 total runs.

It's the opposite for Boston. In their first three games against Baltimore, they scored only 5 runs in three games. They bounced back against the Rays, scoring 11, 6, and 9 runs in their last three while getting 16, 10, and13 hits respectively.

Matt Harvey, aka the Black Knight, is taking the mound for the Orioles. It wasn't that long ago that Mets fans believed that Harvey was the best pitcher on that loaded Mets staff. How the mighty have fallen as Harvey has now bounced from the Royals to the Orioles. In 2020 Harvey had 11.57 ERA, 2.74 WHIP, 20.8 hits, and 4.8 HR per 9 innings. Five days ago, Harvey went up against the Red Sox for the first time since 2019 and went for longer than four innings. He allowed 2 ER, 6 hits, and 1 walk.

For Boston, Eduardo Rodriguez is taking the mound. It will be his first time pitching since 2019. In 2019, Rodriguez finished the season with a 19-6 record and a 3.81 ERA. With the Orioles' offense disappearing, the Red Sox finding their groove, and the Red Sox have the clear pitching advantage, I'm following the public with my pick.

The pick: Red Sox -148

Angels (+103) vs. Blue Jays (-113) 7:07 p.m. ET 

For the first night game, two teams are trying to get out of 2nd in their division. With a 4-2 record, the Angels are one game better than the Blue Jays. The public believes that the Angels will win this game, as 52% of the bets are on Los Angeles Moneyline. I will not be picking a side but instead looking at the total, set at 10 runs. For once, the public is not rooting for runs since 70% of bets are on the under.

The over has hit at a 50% clip for Angels home games, and one game finished 1 below the total. The Angels have hit 9 home runs so far this season, 5th in the MLB. The Angels are 7th in the MLB for runs per game, compared to the Blue Jays, who are 20th.

Toronto will look to get their offense back on track since they have scored just 20 runs this season. They have a great chance going against Griffin Canning, who is starting for the Angels. Canning allows 63% of balls in play, which won't be good for an Angels team struggling on defense. In six games this season, Los Angeles has 6 errors, which is 2nd in the MLB. Canning's stats for spring training are great for this over since he had a 6.75 ERA, allowed 3 HR, 11 earned runs in 14.2 IP. I will be heavily fading the public with my pick. 

The pick: Under 10 runs

A's (+132) vs. Astros (-156) 8:10 p.m. ET       

Don't overthink this game. This isn't a game to get cute and take a huge underdog Moneyline. The public isn't overthinking the game, as 85% of bets are on the Astros Moneyline. In their first series, Houston outscored Oakland 35-9. For the A's, Cole Irvin is starting, and he has already faced the Astros this season. He is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA, allowing 4 runs on 7 hits in 4.1 innings in his only game. Chris Javier is taking the mound for Houston. So far this season, Javier is 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA. Last Friday, he faced off against Oakland and allowed only 2 runs on 3 hits.

The Astros and A's couldn't be more opposite. The Astros are 2nd in HR, 2nd in runs scored, and 3rd in batting average. The A's are 24th in hits, 25th in HR, and 25th for runs. The A's are struggling, and I see their struggles continuing tonight. This is why I'm following the public with my pick.  

The pick: Astros -156