Fade Alert: Hockey Picks Colder Than The Ice

Hurricanes vs. Oilers, 9:37 ET

When I first started doing handicapping I used to want to run and hide in a hole when I was in a slump. The reality is that they happen. It is going to happen to everyone probably in every sport they try. The difference between then and now is that I own and embrace the losses. It gives me motivation to try different things, look for different angles, and hopefully start picking winners again. I make no false claims about being a hockey expert. I'm not an expert. I started publicly handicapping hockey last season and had a lot of success. This year, I'm down - not a crazy amount, only a few under .500. But, lately has been ugly. I'm not only getting the winner wrong, my sprinkles are way off too. Any day they play is a day to turn it around and go on a streak though, and that's what I'm looking to do against the Hurricanes and Oilers.

The Hurricanes are coming into this game with a 14-9-1 record and most of their struggle has been on the road to start this season. Going into tonight, they are 6-7-0 in road games. What impresses me most about the Hurricanes is their defense. They've allowed 3.21 goals per game which isn't a great number but it is reasonable. The thing is they are only facing 24.6 shots against per game, one of the lowest in the league. If your goalie only has to face 25 shots a game, the goalie has to stop more than 22 of them. Maybe the issue is the few shots that are going into the back of the net are just very high quality attempts from the opponents. Oddly enough, they aren't great at killing penalties though. So perhaps that's where they struggle and tonight they face a team that scores on over 25% of their Power Play attempts. Antti Raanta is likely to be in the net tonight. For the season, he's been a below average goalie overall, posting just an .859% save percentage. He did face the Oilers in the first period on the 22nd, their first matchup of the season and he allowed one goal. He faced eight attempts and allowed one past him. He was pulled for some sort of injury, but played again two night later and completed that game.

RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA - APRIL 17: Sebastian Aho #20 of the Carolina Hurricanes battles Sebastian Aho #25 of the New York Islanders during the third period in Game One of the First Round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at PNC Arena on April 17, 2023 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Josh Lavallee/NHLI via Getty Images)

That game against the Hurricanes has to be one the Oilers will have in their memory going into tonight. It isn't just because the game took place recently, it is because the Hurricanes absolutely blitzed the Oilers in it. The final score of the game was 6-3, but the Oilers allowed four first period goals to the Hurricanes. The record of the Oilers isn't quite what you'd hope or expect at this point at just 9-12-1, but they are playing much better lately, having won four straight games. They also have been led by multiple players rather than just relying on one guy to do everything for them. Their offense has been rolling lately as well, scoring five goals or more in three of their past four games. Tonight they play against a team that is allowing a lot of pucks to find the back of the net, even if they aren't allowing a ton of shots. Stuart Skinner is likely to be in the net for the Oilers tonight. He was in there for the first game against the Hurricanes and allowed four goals in just 16 minutes. Since that game he has produced a shutout, a one-goal game, a two-goal game, and a four-goal game. Pretty decent results overall.

I like the form of the Oilers. Like that they are at home, and think their goalie, Skinner, is going to play some inspired hockey tonight after the punishment he took at the hands of the Hurricanes last game. This could be a good opportunity to keep the team rolling and the Oilers should win this game. I'm taking them to win. But, as I said in the opening, feel free to fade me right now. I've got confidence this is a winner though.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024