Experience And Continuity Will Push Astros Past Rangers In Game 7 Of 2023 ALCS
Despite a lack of playoff experience and pitching depth, the Texas Rangers (3-3) have pushed the 2023 ALCS vs. the Houston Astros (3-3) to a Game 7 on Monday. The Rangers beat the Astros 9-2 Sunday to keep their season alive.
Texas starts mid-season acquisition, and 3-time Cy Young winning, RHP Max Scherzer for the decisive Game 7. Scherzer got roughed up in Game 3 of this series. The Astros scored 5 ERs in just 4 IP vs. Scherzer in a 8-5 win.
Rangers RHP Max Scherzer walks around the mound after giving up an RBI single to Houston Astros 2B Mauricio Dubon in Game 3 of the 2023 ALCS at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Houston gives RHP Cristian Javier the nod Monday. Javier started Game 3 of the 2023 ALCS and out-dueled Scherzer. He pitched 5.2 innings, allowing only 2 ER. Not only does Javier pitch better at home but he's also been the more reliable playoff pitcher.
Since 2022, the Astros are 8-2 in Javier starts vs. teams with a winning record. Houston has a +44.0% return on investment in those games and is out-scoring opponents 4.8-2.9. Furthermore, Javier is 4-0 in the past two postseasons with a 1.16 ERA across 23.1 IP.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Game 7
Betting odds for the Texas Rangers at Houston Astros in Game 7 of the 2023 ALCS.
The Rangers are going to need a vintage Scherzer performance in Game 7 because their bullpen sucks. Per FanGraphs, Texas's relievers rank 10th out of 12 teams this postseason xFIP ("expected fielding independent pitching") and dead-last in hard-hit rate.
Both lineups are obviously stacked. But, I defer to Houston's since it has more experience and the hottest hitter in the postseason. Astros All-Star Yordan Alvarez leads the 2023 MLB postseason with a .436 batting average, 6 HRs, and a .949 slugging percentage (among batters with at least 20 plate appearances).