Expect Much Better Effort From Duke In First Half Against TCU

TCU vs. Duke, 5:15 ET

It wasn't the most ideal first day of the tournament as both of my plays that I put out lost. Georgia played no defense whatsoever, and St. Louis decided to destroy the total. I got a decent number and had a closing line value. However, that only matters if you win, so in this case, it didn't matter. North Carolina was the other team that decided winning a tournament game wasn't important. They were up 19, so if you bet on FanDuel, you might've cashed. But the -2.5 that looked good for about 39 minutes of the game ended up falling short, and VCU advanced. Such is the life of March Madness betting. I'll switch over to their rivals, who looked rough in their first game as Duke takes on TCU.

TCU upset Ohio State in their opening weekend matchup. If you watched that game, TCU probably deserved to win, but they did almost blow it. They were up big at halftime, jumping out to a 15-point lead. Then, the Buckeyes started coming back. As shots started falling for their opponent, TCU started looking like they couldn't figure it out. With the momentum on Ohio State's side, the Horned Frogs needed to find some way to get their offense going and to recapture the lead. With under two minutes remaining, David Punch was able to get an And-1 layup, knocking in the free throw to take a 61-59 lead. Ohio State would tie it up on a couple of free throws of its own. Micah Robinson answered with a three-pointer for TCU, before Ohio State knocked in a triple to tie it. With 26 seconds left, TCU had the ball with a chance to win. I'm not going to blame the refs, but there was a clear travel, and three seconds definitely could've been called. Instead, Xavier Edmonds dropped in a bucket. Ohio State called a timeout to run one of the worst full-court plays I've ever seen, and the game was over. TCU advances.

Duke didn't have a cakewalk in their first round game. We've seen some 16 seeds beat 1 seeds over the years, but this would've been a historic collapse. You have the best team in the country - by seeding. You have one of the three best players in the nation, and you're eliminated right away? Brutal. However, they did what they needed to do - lock in on defense, not panic, and find a way to get consistent buckets. They held Sienna to just 22 points in the second half, and they held them to just seven points in the final 10 minutes of the game. That certainly falls a bit on the Sienna coach because he didn't make any substitutions. I get it in the first half - everything is clicking, you don't want to throw it off. However, the second half, you have to get some fresh legs in there when the team is up, and you're not getting the same shots to fall. They gifted Duke a comeback, and the Blue Devils took advantage of the opportunity. 

I'm going to spoil it for you: Duke is not going to win the National Championship. They are trending toward a loss. Their margin of victory in their tournament games (both ACC and now the NCAA one) has been one point, 12 points, four points, and six points. This is not a team that looks steady, but they did get a scare. Usually, that wakes a team up and makes them realize they need to get to a better start for the next game. That's why I'm taking Duke here in the first half -6.5. I don't necessarily think they will blow TCU out in the game, but I do think they will win again. I just think the first half will have a much better effort than the first half against Sienna. 

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