Expect A Defensive Chess Match For CFP Opener

Alabama vs. Oklahoma, 8:00 ET

After trudging through a week of Bowl Games that didn’t have significant meaning, and, if we are being honest, didn’t have teams you were super excited to watch, we get a game fits the bill on both accounts. You should be pumped to see this College Football Playoffs opener as we have two teams that are probably the most evenly matched open round game, and they both have somewhat realistic expectations for winning the entire bracket. Let’s see how we should take on the matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma. 

Alabama snuck into the playoffs with a 10-3 record, and at least a little bit of me has to wonder if it is name recognition more than their actual body of work. This is a team that has been ranked the entire season, comes in with high expectations, but hasn’t really been all that impressive in the past few seasons. They had a very uncharacteristic loss to start the year as they dropped a game to Florida State. This might be the worst loss any team in the College Football Playoffs has on their resume. Florida State was a bad team this season, and Alabama couldn’t get anything going against them, losing 31-17. They were angry and rebounded the next week, scoring 73 against UL Monroe. They then established their resume as a top team again, beating Georgia (in Georgia), Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee in four consecutive weeks. The other two losses those have come in the past four games. They dropped a game to Oklahoma in Alabama 23-21, and then they lost badly to the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game. Still they snuck in and try and get revenge on the Sooners today. 

Oklahoma had a good year and met their expectations, even if there are a couple of games they might like to replay. We have been profitable on the Sooners this year as well, picking the right spots to back them, and picking the right spots to fade. To start the year, they had a fairly tough schedule. After beating Illinois State with ease, they hosted #15 Michigan, and we got some cash in that victory. The next time I played them was when they faced Texas and we did take them to not perform that well. This was a game where their quarterback, Joe Mateer, was coming back from a hand injury and we were right to fade them. Their other loss for the year was against Ole Miss where they fell by eight points. Since that loss, they’ve won the past four games, beating Tennessee, this Alabama team, Missouri, and LSU. They aren’t pulling super far away from anyone, but they are doing a good job of escaping with wins. It is a combination of just enough offense, and a defense that bends a little but gets the stops when needed most.

Alabama is favored on the road, and I’m not sure I love it. We have seen how difficult it can be to beat the same team twice in a season, so I recognize that it probably makes sense that the Crimson Tide are expected to win. However, this game is on the road, and college teams often struggle there. I think this game is probably going to go under the total of 40.5. That doesn’t leave much room for error, but expect the teams to stay in conservative mode on offense. Alabama’s defense is enough to deal with Mateer. And, Ty Simpson, hasn’t looked all that impressive, nor has the Crimson Tide running game. Give me the under. 

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