Even With Struggling Offenses, Over Should Hit

Mariners vs. Rockies, 3:10 ET

I won't lie to you, this isn't the prettiest game I've ever seen. The Mariners are my American League team to a certain extent (I'll be honest, my fandom waned for them a bit when Ichiro was gone). The Rockies are a team that I love their stadium and even think they have pretty cool logos, but I also recognize that this franchise hasn't been relevant in years. They've tried a bit, but things don't tend to work out for them - just look at Kris Bryant's signing. Still, we can find a way to make this game interesting with a bet on the game as the Rockies take on the Mariners.

 It can be hard to judge what a team will be at the beginning of the season. If you look at the standings, it would seem like every team in the league is basically around .500. That would mean there is quite a bit of parity. The reality is that injuries will set in, some teams will go ice cold, some will get hot, and others will remain exactly as they are right now. The Mariners are a team that was essentially .500 last season until the second half. In the second half, they started playing very good baseball and ultimately fell just short of making the playoffs. That's probably a similar path that they can take this season. Today, they send out George Kirby to the mound. Kirby is a solid pitcher, but I personally feel he is a bit overhyped. So far, this has been a bit of a tough season for him as he has a 6.64 ERA. If we look closer at it, we see he's had two good games and two bad games. In his good games he has covered 12.2 innings and allowed just two earned runs and seven total hits. The two bad starts saw him allow 18 hits and 13 earned runs over 7.2 innings. The Rockies hitters have gone just 3-for-15 against Kirby, but if the bad version of him shows up they still can find ways to launch the ball over the fence, especially in Coors Field. 

Sep 23, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Colorado Rockies right fielder Kris Bryant (23) reacts after being called out on strikes during the seventh inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

The one spot you should be willing to consider a bet on the Rockies is in Colorado. For whatever reason, they are a team that is typically terrible on the road, but surprisingly average at home. Sometimes even above average. Even writing that sentence made me feel like the Rockies franchise is in complete disarray. As usual their offense has been fairly solid with a batting average of around .250, but that hasn't resulted in a ton of runs. They are, however, better than the Mariners in essentially every category except home runs for their offense. Their pitching staff is terrible though. Coming into this series, their ERA was over 6, and their WHIP was over 1.60 for the year. Allowing three or more base runners every couple of innings is a recipe for disaster (hence their record). Today they send out Cal Quantrill to stop the Mariners. Quantrill comes in with a 5.57 ERA, but is coming off of back-to-back quality starts. Quantrill is actually a very good starter and has pitched well for the Guardians in the past. He's only made one Coors Field start, but he allowed just three earned runs over six innings. The Mariners hit 16-for-67 against Quantrill in their careers. 

Outside of Coors, I would envision that Kirby would win this matchup four out of five times. But, this game is in Coors, so what are we supposed to do? I think this game will see a lot of runs. Kirby isn't in great form, and the history of both pitchers makes me think there will be opportunity for both offenses to score runs. I'm going to take the over in this one. Both pitchers could throw quality starts, but I still think the bullpens could allow runs even if they do. I'll back the over here. 

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