Early Play For Game 3 Between Phillies And Diamondbacks

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks, 5:07 ET

We took down another unit in baseball last night as the postseason continues to treat us kindly. The Astros and Rangers combined for 13 runs and we only needed 10 so it was a pretty easy cash in this one. That series is now 2-1 Rangers and Game 4 is tonight. For this play, we refocus on the National League Championship Series in Game 3 of the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.

The Phillies have been absolutely destroying the ball. In the first two games of this series, against the two best pitchers that the Diamondbacks could throw at the team, they hit six home runs in the games. I suppose it is just what the Phillies do. They hit home runs and win games. I saw a stat on them since they moved Kyle Schwarber into the first spot in the order, and it was eye-opening. Schwarber isn't your prototypical leadoff hitter - he batted under .200 for the season, but he launched 47 homers. The record turned around when he moved up there though. The team is clicking and I have to assume the Diamondbacks are at the very least uncomfortable right now. Tonight the Phillies look to take full command with a 3-0 lead with Ranger Suarez. Suarez is a guy that gets very little recognition in this Phillies rotation with so much emphasis on Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. However, Suarez has been very solid in the postseason with just one solo home run allowed over 8.2 innings. Both of those outings were against the Braves, a team with offensive firepower significantly greater than the Diamondbacks. He has faced Arizona twice this season with drastically different results - he allowed five earned runs in five innings at home, and on the road (where the game is tonight) he allowed just four hits and no runs in seven innings.

SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 23: Ranger Suarez #55 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches during the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Thursday, June 23, 2022 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Diamondbacks need to win this game. Could they come back from down 3-0? Of course, they could, but it is highly unlikely. Tonight is as much of a must-win game as Game 4 would be in my opinion. After starting the postseason not losing a game, they've been ambushed in these first two games against the Phillies. What can they change? Well, they need to get to the Phillies starting pitcher much earlier. That is obviously easier said than done, but I think they could have a shot against Suarez tonight as the adrenaline should be flowing from the home crowd being behind them. A lot has been made of the Philadelphia crowd, and at least that is one big change that won't be coming to Arizona. Brandon Pfaadt is taking the hill for the Diamondbacks. This is his third postseason start. In his first one, he allowed three earned runs over 2.2 innings. Against the Dodgers, he was able to toss 4.1 innings and allow just two hits. That was the first, and only, home playoff game for the Diamondbacks thus far. He has never faced the Phillies and I typically like the pitcher to have the advantage in that type of situation.

The Phillies are rolling right now, but I think there has to be some fight from the Diamondbacks. I don't really trust Suarez, despite him being solid in the postseason (and him making me money in the process). We will see if Pfaadt has the stuff to navigate this Phillies lineup, but I think for a few innings he can. I am taking the Diamondbacks to win the first five innings in this game at even money. To be honest, if they don't win the first five innings, they lose the game and ultimately the series.

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