Duke And Louisville Should Capitalize On Offensive Strengths

Duke vs. Louisville, 7:00 ET

Now that we've entered 2026, it is time to start really paying attention to College Basketball. This is actually one of the toughest times to bet on the sport as there is less going on in terms of the number of football games. There is still opportunity, and as always, I try to provide plays on the most interesting games, unless there is a truly great play on a random one. Tonight, one of the best games on the slate is between the Duke Blue Devils and the Louisville Cardinals. 

Duke enters the game today as the sixth-ranked team in the nation and has a strong 13-1 record. They've already had two conference games and won both of them in some tight contests. This hasn't been the best stretch of the season for Duke as they lost three games ago to Texas Tech, and since the return after Christmas break, they have only had the two ACC games. They hosted Georgia Tech and won by just six points. Against Florida State, they had to play on the road and only took that game by four points. Wins are wins, but I wouldn't exactly put either team in the same category as Duke. Still, conference games are typically harder, and as is the case most years, all of these teams are new, young, and figuring out how to play in hostile areas. Duke is led by Cam Boozer, who has been as good as advertised. Boozer is averaging 23 points per game and pulling in close to 10 rebounds. He commands a lot of attention, which should lead to more option shots from the rest of the Duke roster, but they are shooting just 35.4% from three this season.

(Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images)

Louisville is also a ranked team, coming in at 20th. They are 11-3 for the year and did already drop one game in the ACC. Their three losses this season came at the hands of Arkansas as a road team, losing by nine, then the next one was against Tennessee, also on the road, and a much tougher loss, losing by 21. The final loss was their last game as they had to travel across the country to play Stanford, and they lost by four. So we know they struggle on the road, but are they good at home? Louisville has only had one home game against a ranked opponent, and that came in the third game of the year as they took down Kentucky 96-88. They have also beaten Indiana on a neutral court, and took down Memphis in Louisville as their other impressive victories. Louisville is built around their guard play, which could be an edge, but will also mean it will be tough to deal with Duke's frontcourt. They have six guys that are averaging double-digts (okay, one guy is at 9.5 points per game). 

This should be a really entertaining matchup. I made a point of Duke not shooting great from deep, but it isn't like Louisville is either, they are averaging just 35.3% from deep this season as well. While Duke doesn't have quite the same elite combination of guys from last year, they do have some great talent. The team is clicking and should win this game. I don't really like taking teams on the road unless they are substantially better, and right now they aren't. I'd lean to Louisville, but I'm not playing it. I'm taking the over for this game as both are pretty talented offensively and neither has a great defense to stop what the opposition is good at offensively. 

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