Sportsbooks Flip NFL MVP Favorite From Matt Stafford To Drake Maye After Week 17
Matt Stafford’s three-interception primetime loss opened the door and Drake Maye’s five-touchdown clinic slammed it shut.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matt Stafford blew his chances to win the 2025 NFL MVP in a 27-24 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football in Week 17. At least, according to the sportsbooks. Stafford was a heavy favorite to win the NFL MVP entering Week 17, followed by New England Patriots QB Drake Maye, and no one else was in the conversation.
However, they basically flipped in odds after Stafford threw three interceptions, including a pick-six, in LA's loss Monday, and Maye absolutely shredded the New York Jets in New England's AFC East-clinching 42-10 win Sunday. Maye completed 19-of-21 passes for 256 yards and five touchdowns vs. NYJ, and his 99.8 QBR was the highest since the stat was invented in 2006.
Also, LAR's 38-37 overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football in Week 16 contributes to Stafford's fall to second in the NFL MVP betting odds. Like Monday, that loss to Seattle was an ugly one because it's in primetime, which voters remember. Plus, Stafford's MVP argument suffers because the Rams can't win the NFC West.
The Regular-Season Clock Is The Real Villain For Stafford
Usually, my instinct is to fade overreactions in the betting market, but this line movement is appropriate. Since the NFL MVP is a regular-season award and there is only one game left in the regular season, Stafford doesn't have another opportunity to lure voters. The Patriots host the Miami Dolphins in Week 18, the Rams play the Arizona Cardinals, and neither game is in primetime.
With that in mind, these late-season primetime games swing the award votes. A big reason why Lamar Jackson won the 2023 NFL MVP instead of Josh Allen is that the Baltimore Ravens decisively beat the San Francisco 49ers Christmas night. Otherwise, Allen had better stats than Lamar, and their team resumes were similar.
Maye's MVP case improves when looking at his team, whereas Stafford's MVP argument suffers. Both are having phenomenal seasons. Yet, LAR is stacked and was a fringe Super Bowl contender entering the season, and New England won four games last season and replaced its coaching staff this offseason. That said, Maye will be the 2025 NFL MVP, and rightfully so.
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