Don't Sleep On SMU Taking Down Cardinals

SMU vs. Louisville, 2:30 ET

I went just 1-1 yesterday, but we did cash the first future as Gonzaga won the West Coast Conference Tournament. It wasn't much of a surprise, but that was a good victory. More importantly, we can be happy with the cash. We can also put that behind us, as I lost both of those plays that I recommended in the tournament. Now we have other Conference Tournaments going, and this play comes in the ACC Tournament. Let's lock in a play between SMU and Louisville.

SMU comes into today's game as the underdog, but I think it would be a bit wrong to be completely dismissive of them. They've put together a decent campaign this season. The Mustangs were 19-8 before a late-season stumble that put them to 19-12 to end the year. How they lost the last four games is a bit concerning. They lost a close game at California and then were blown out by Stanford. Miami took them down at home by eight. Then, Florida State beat them by 13. So, the current form isn't exactly ideal. Did they have any good wins this year? Sure! They beat North Carolina by 14. They also beat Louisville by 10 this season. Outside of that, they lost to Duke by just seven, Virginia by just four, and the Miami game wasn't that bad of a loss either. They have talent and can play, but it might just be a matter of making things mesh and work together. They played yesterday in the opener against Syracuse and dropped 86 on the Orangemen, winning by almost 20 points. 

Mar 7, 2026; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; Louisville Cardinals head coach Pat Kelsey reacts in a game against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Romance-Imagn Images

Louisville is currently ranked 24th and should make the NCAA Tournament without much concern about what happens in this tournament. It is possible they are bounced, but I doubt it. For the season, the Cardinals are 22-9, but they went just 11-7 in the ACC, which, despite having some big-name schools, wasn't really the toughest conference this year. They lost two Duke twice, so those might be a bit excusable. They did end their year on a nice note, taking down Miami by three points on the road. That ends up being one of their better wins of the season, and their third win over a top 25 program for the season. The problem I really have with the Cardinals is that they are a bit inconsistent. I suppose that could be three-point variance coming into play as the team is shooting just 36.3 for the season from deep. They are a guard-heavy team, and if your outside shot is not falling, you're going to struggle.

This is a game that I think SMU actually has an advantage. They are playing this at the Spectrum Center in North Carolina, which means they are in a different, neutral site. SMU played here yesterday and is used to the sight lines, court, and environment. That makes a big difference for teams. The Cardinals probably have the better team overall, but if the jumper isn't falling, this will be a long night for Louisville who gets 40% of its points from two pointers. For reference, they get 41.5% of their points from threes, 11th most in the nation. Compare that to SMU, which is getting 53%. We know the mid-range is dying, so that is mostly from looks close to the hoop. For the record, they are about 30% of points coming from deep. Obviously threes are worth more than twos, but again, if they don't fall, which it will be harder for them to shoot in a new arena, I'm thinking SMU can cover and might even win outright. I'd also look to SMU in the first half, but don't play both. 

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