Dodgers Offense Will Pounce On Reds Bullpen Game

Reds vs. Dodgers, 10:10 ET

This game piqued my interest for a variety of reasons. We have two teams that were either in the playoffs or at least in the race for the postseason last year. We have some of the more electric stars of the game playing in this one. It is the start of a four-game set between the squads, another thing that doesn't happen too often. And, finally, from a betting standpoint, it is one of the biggest favorites we've seen this season. I don't think I've seen a run line of 2.5 this season either, but that is the uphill battle the Reds face tonight as they take on the Dodgers. 

I can only tell you that there are a lot of reasons that the Reds don't have much public or sharp support on them lately. The team is just 18-25 on the season and are 9-12 away from their home field. They have been awful over the past month and some change. They just lost two of three games to the Diamondbacks (I was wrong about the only game they won), and have lost four of the past six games they've played on this West Coast road trip. Since April 30th, the Reds are 2-12. Now they have to play one of the best teams in baseball. That isn't what you would call an ideal situation. The thing is, they aren't getting blown out in games, at least not lately. They have either won or lost by one run in four straight games and seven of their past eight games. It has to be a bit of an anomaly to not only play in that many one-run games, but to lose that many as well. Tonight they send out Brent Suter to essentially open this game for them. He is a reliever who last pitched on Tuesday. I have to assume you are getting one or two innings out of him then they will turn the ball over to the rest of the bullpen. The issue is that this is the first game of the series so it also sets your bullpen up very poorly for the rest of the weekend. 

Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds reacts after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Great American Ball Park. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

The Dodgers have the capability of kicking the crap out of basically any opponent. Their hitting is among the best in the game and they have three bonafide superstars that could all end up as MVP finalists every season. Going through the lineup and seeing Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani as three of the hitters you need to try and get out somewhere between nine and 12 times a game will be daunting for even the best starting pitching, but it will be even more difficult for a mediocre bullpen. Part of the other reason that the Dodgers are such a favorite in this game is who they have on the mound. Tyler Glasnow is taking the ball and he has been even better than anyone expected him to be after being acquired in the offseason. Glasnow has been great with a 2.53 ERA and leading the league with 73 strikeouts. He also is fourth in WHIP at 0.86. For the season, he has put up seven quality starts. He only has had one start where he allowed more than three earned runs, and only two starts this year where he has allowed three or more. Reds hitters haven't been great against Glasnow, but not terrible either with a .250 average in just 20 at-bats. Mike Ford has faced him 13 of those times, so most of the game should be spent trying to figure him out. 

I'll tell you this, I will never play a moneyline like this or even put them in a parlay because I feel like every time we get a line this high, the favorite loses. I do lean toward the Reds getting the 2.5 runs. I already documented how they have performed lately. If you bet on their moneyline their past eight games, you'd be 2-8, but if you took their run line of +1.5, you'd be 7-1. I don't care much for the idea of the Reds only scoring one or two runs in this game - their team total is juiced toward the under 2.5. Instead, I like the Dodgers to do some damage here and I'll take the over 4.5 runs for them. I don't think this Reds team can contain them. 

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