Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers, 10:10 ET
This may not matter much, and it isn't very surprising, but the Dodgers are easily the best team in Major League Baseball. They were one of the best, if not the best, in basically each of the past five or more seasons. This year has been something else. They only have 18 losses on the year at home and they were the first to 100 wins. But, one part that really stands out is they have a +329 run differential. That's over 100 runs more than the next closest (Yankees).
How do you combat a lineup with no holes? Well, you really don't. You just hope to contain it with some really strong pitching. The Diamondbacks can probably count on that from Merrill Kelly today. Kelly has a 3.01 ERA for the season and has been just as good on the road with a 2.95 ERA. He has struggled his last two starts, both against the NL West, and one of those was against the Dodgers. Even that start against the Dodgers wasn't terrible. He went five innings and allowed three earned runs. His biggest issue was his control because he allowed a season-high five walks. This will be his fifth start against the Dodgers this season. He has allowed at least three runs in all of the starts. His worst start though was his one road start against them. In Los Angeles, he allowed eight earned runs in two innings.
Clayton Kershaw, as usual now, has had an injury-interrupted season. Since he returned from the injured list in September, he has turned the clock back a bit. In the three starts, he has increased the number of innings he's gone through and has been very efficient. In his most recent outing, he went seven against the Diamondbacks and allowed just two hits for the game. That was his only start of the year against the Diamondbacks. For the Diamondbacks, only Christian Walker has seen any real success against Kershaw.
The Dodgers are coming off of a 10-inning victory over the Giants last night. I like fading teams off of the evening game, but the Dodgers are a different team. The Diamondbacks are also not in very good form lately. They have lost their past three games and are just 3-7 over their last ten games. I would love to back Merrill Kelly, but I can't do that. I think our best bet here is for us to take the Dodgers on the run line at -125. If you want a player prop sprinkle just for fun, take Christian Walker at +475 to hit a home run.
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