Diamondbacks Can Even NLCS With Phillies In Game 2 Tuesday
Dingers carried the Philadelphia Phillies (1-0) past the Arizona Diamondbacks (0-1) in a 5-3 win Monday in the 2023 NLCS opener. Phillies sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper both hit 1st inning HRs and OF Nick Castellanos went yard in the 2nd.
The Diamondbacks turn to RHP Merrill Kelly in Game 2 to steal one before heading back to Arizona. Kelly beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS. He pitched 6.1-scoreless innings with 3 H and a 5/2 K/BB rate.
Philadelphia gives RHP Aaron Nola the ball Tuesday. Nola has won both starts in these playoffs (vs. Miami Marlins in the NLWCS and Atlanta Braves in the NLDS). In 12.2 IP this postseason, Nola has given up just 2 ERs on 9 H and 2 BB with 12 K.
Philadelphia Phillies RHP Aaron Nola delivers a pitch vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field in Phoenix. (Norm Hall/Getty Images)
This season, Kelly earned a no-decision in Arizona's 4-3 loss to Philly in June. He allowed just 3 ERs on 3 H, 1 HR and 4 BB with just 7 K. Nola won his only start vs. the D-Backs in 2023. Over 6.2 IP, Nola struck out nine hitters but gave up 4 ERs on 6 H, 1 BB and 1 HR.
Diamondbacks at Phillies Game 2
Betting odds of Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 of the NLCS.
Backing Kelly in this spot has been profitable this season. The Diamondbacks are 6-2 overall as road underdogs, including the playoffs, when Kelly gets the start. Their average moneyline is +130 and Arizona has a +73.2% return on investment in those games.
The D-Backs struggled at the plate towards the end of the regular season but are hitting better in the postseason. Arizona's lineup is 3rd in both wRC+ and BB/K in these playoffs and 4th in wOBA, per FanGraphs.
Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll walks against the LA Dodgers during Game 2 of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium. (Rob Schumacher/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have the 2nd-highest hard-hit rate in the playoffs but a .262 BABIP. Meaning, they have been sort of unlucky at the plate.
Also, Arizona's bullpen has the best FIP ("fielding independent pitching") at 2.70 in the NL this postseason. Philadelphia's bullpen has a 3.90 FIP and the lowest K-rate in the playoffs at 17.6%.
My prediction: Diamondbacks 5, Phillies 2