Devers And Bregman Could Continue To Feast On Bassit's Pitching

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox, 4:10 ET

Every year we get some surprise teams in the league. Sometimes there are teams that we expect to do amazing and they have an injury or collectively the hitters all have down years. Maybe the pitching staff doesn't do well for whatever reason. We also get others that perform above expectations. Then there are teams like the Mets last season that struggled for half of it and went other-worldly in the second half of the season. Tonight we have one team that might be overperforming and one that hasn't quite found their groove yet as the Blue Jays take on the Red Sox.

To me, it is really important to get out to a good start for specific teams. If you are a team like the Blue Jays and you lose a bunch of games to start the year, the thought has to be that they are going to have another down year and not make the playoffs. The team has certainly invested in players, and seemingly been tied to every big-name free agent there is. Other than not landing the "big fish," I'm not really sure what you can ask for. To start the year, the Blue Jays are actually doing well - they are not only 8-5, but they got some positive morale with the team by getting Vlad Gurerro Jr. signed to a long-term deal. The team sends out someone that has been surprisingly good for them over the past year or so, Chris Bassitt. Bassitt isn't the top name in the rotation with Max Scherzer and Kevin Gausman on the list, but he has been really good. He is 1-0 for the season with a 0.71 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. There is reason to think he could struggle tonight, though. Red Sox hitters are batting .292 against him, with Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman both causing quite a bit of damage. 

TORONTO, ON - JUNE 18: Chris Bassitt #40 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches to the Boston Red Sox during the first inning in their MLB game at the Rogers Centre on June 18, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)

The Red Sox are off to an average start, but one thing they really don't want to do is lose this game today. They have already lost all three of these games to the Blue Jays (I spoke about small sample sizes affecting records in my other article today - the Blue Jays were 5-5 when this series started and the Red Sox were 6-4). They certainly don't want to get swept in a four-game series. The problem is that the Red Sox are just not hitting the ball at the moment. They have scored a total of four runs in three games. Prior to that they did have a huge offensive outburst against the Cardinals, pounding the ball and getting 18 runs. In fact, this is the only time they've really struggled to score this season as they have 67 runs in 13 games, good for a 5.15 runs per game average. In order to try and keep them in the game regardless of how the offense does is Walker Buehler. Buehler was a Cy Young candidate before injuries slowed down his career. He hasn't looked great for the Red Sox in his two starts with them, going just 9.1 innings and allowing at least four earned runs in both games. He has, however, been good against the Blue Jays in limited experience. He has held them to just three hits in 16 at-bats. 

The typical thought here is that the Red Sox should win this game. They are certainly struggling, but past performances indicate that they see the ball pretty well out of Bassit's hand. I think Buehler should have a good year, but he isn't looking quite so sharp at the moment. I would think the game goes over the total, but I'm not playing any of that. Instead, I'm taking Devers and Bregman to both get over 1.5 total bases at +120 each. I also think that they probably get two hits, so if you want the big payday, go that route. 

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