Will Cubs Tinkering To Roster Pay Dividends This Year?

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

I’m a Cubs fan, but I’ll let you know in advance, I’m not a die hard that believes everything they do is the right thing. I’m probably overly difficult to please as a fan, if anything. For the most part, I’ve been very good betting on or against the team as well. There was a level of optimism with the club last season when they traded for Kyle Tucker, and there is a level of it again this year. Baseball always brings optimism at the beginning of the season, I suppose, but is it warranted for a Cubs team that finally made the playoffs last year?

Last year recap:

As mentioned, the Cubs did make the playoffs last season, but as a Wild Card team. They were the top Wild Card team, if that makes any bit of difference to you. As you’re probably aware, though, they were unable to catch up to, or keep up with, the Brewers. The Cubs looked like the best team in baseball for a stretch of the season with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, and Seyia Suzuki mashing. Then July hit and all three basically fell off a cliff. Sure, the defense was still there, and the rotation seemed to be held together by duct tape and guys having some surprisingly good years. The front office knew this team had a chance to make the playoffs so they bolstered the team around the trade deadline with some major hitting and pitching acquisitions to ensure they got there. Oh, wait. No, they didn’t. They traded for Mike Soroka who pitched for eight total innings over the remainder of the season and postseason. They didn’t get another bat to help with the struggles from their main contributors either. I can excuse that a bit, thinking your guys would get back on track, but not even a mid-level guy at third base when that position was a black hole all year? Wild. Anyway, they lost to the Brewers in the postseason, and then the Brewers took a photo on the field hold an L flag and never won another postseason game.

Offseason moves:

The big moves the cubs made this offseason were related to the pitching staff, and one position player. The team traded for Edward Cabrera, a talented, but oft-injured guy who has years of control remaining. They also replenished their bullpen a bit, doing something they’ve done for years. The Cubs, to their credit, seem to be better at finding arms for the bullpen, rebuilding it, and delivering. MLB.com lists their bullpen as 14 deep right now for the depth chart. That will obviously change, but as you can tell, they invest there and it does make a difference. The other major addition was Alex Bregman, who replaces his former Astros teammate, Tucker. Breman was highly coveted by many for his bat and leadership. He’s a bit older, but he still should have good years remaining. It is always a big deal when you can get one of the best free agents on the market. 

MIAMI, FLORIDA - AUGUST 03: Edward Cabrera #27 of the Miami Marlins walks to the dugout after getting the out at first as teammate Liam Hicks #34 watches on during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees at loanDepot park on August 03, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Jared Lennon/Getty Images)

Roster: 

The Cubs did take the Brewers the distance, going five games, and they were leading in the first inning of Game 1, 1-0. By the end of inning 1, they were down 6-1. Game 2, they were winning 3-0 after their turn to bat, and tied 3-3 at the end of the inning. So, clearly, the starting staff needed some tweaks. Shota Imanaga was a very good pitcher for them in his first two years, and they kind of just let him make a decision on what to do this offseason. He is back in the mix. Justin Steele missed almost all of last season and will be back at some point, but I’m guessing the team will be cautious with him. The rest of the rotation is made of a sophomore (Cade Horton, who had a phenomenal rookie year) and veterans. The bullpen overall should be fine, but I’m not fully sold on Daniel Palencia as a closer. There could be arms to make the difference, though. The good thing is that the Cubs aren’t "weak" really anywhere. Defensively they should be one of the best teams in baseball. On offense, they have enough balance between contact, speed, and power that they should be competitive. 

Betting outlook: 

The issue I have with the Cubs is that they really didn’t do anything to protect themselves from what happened last year. Crow-Armstrong was an MVP candidate and then fell off the face of the Earth. Tucker is gone, and a lot of that production could be replaced by Bregman. For the majority of the rest of the roster, you’re hoping they can reproduce their campaigns from last year. I just don’t think that’s likely. Moises Ballesteros is going to be a question at DH, and the outfield will have Kevin Alcantara in the mix this year, so maybe either of these guys are the answer for when the main guys struggle. Matt Shaw will get some run at a variety of positions, but again, the question is if he can actually hit. This should be a 90-win team provided that they get more consistent performances. Did Crow-Armstrong make the adjustments needed? Will Suzuki hit 30 homers? Will Bregman perform well in his first Chicago year? Lots of questions remain, but the biggest might be if this rotation will be healthy enough. I do think the team will win the division and go over the 88.5 wins. The Brewers should have a bit of a down year, and the other three teams in the division aren’t quite there yet. Id rather take them at +125 to win the division instead of the over 88.5 personally, but I think both hit.