Cubs And Rockies Will Struggle To Score On Windy Day

Rockies vs. Cubs, 2:20 ET

With all of the college basketball that has been going on, baseball has taken a bit of a low priority for me. I know Opening Day I provided plays, but I've kept the rest to myself since that point. It has been a decent enough start for baseball for me as I've started the season 7-2 and had a plus money play that won already. Still, I am hopeful that I can get back to putting out plays daily for Outkick and we can all cash together. Today, I'm locked in on a play between the Rockies and the Cubs as they play an afternoon game in Chicago. 

The Rockies opened their season with four games against the Diamondbacks. It wasn't really a fair fight as the Rockies scored very few runs and allowed a lot of them. They did escape with one victory, but going 1-3 to start the season can't be the way they wanted to kick this year off. I've brought this up in the past, but the Rockies, for years, have been bad on the road, but fairly decent at home. I'm expecting that to be the same this season. So far in four games, they've allowed 32 runs and scored just 14. Nine of those 14 runs came in one game. Today they are sending Dakota Hudson to the hill. Hudson should be familiar with the Cubs as he pitched for the Cardinals every season of his career to this point. Last year, he went 6-3 in 12 starts and had a 4.98 ERA. That included two starts against the Cubs where he went a total of 6.1 innings over two games and allowed five earned runs. Neither one of those games were starts for him. The Cubs are hitting .350 against Hudson in 80 at-bats. This isn't influenced by just one hitter either, there are five hitters with at least 10 at-bats against Hudson. 

Sep 23, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Colorado Rockies right fielder Kris Bryant (23) reacts after being called out on strikes during the seventh inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Although the Cubs have had success against Hudson, they've never hit a home run. That provides more encouragement to me that they are making consistent contact against him. The Cubs had a bit of rough start to the season against the Rangers. They are coming home with a record of just 1-2, but they were competitive in two of the three games. They lost in extra innings of the first game of the year. This was a game where they blew a save, causing the loss, then the extra innings saw the bullpen blow the game quickly. The Cubs did allow 20 runs to the Rangers over three games, and they only scored 14, just like the Rockies. Just like the Rockies, nine of the 14 runs came in one game. Today they have their home opener, and they also unveil one of their offseason additions, Shota Imanaga. He is a fly ball pitcher which can become an issue when he throws on day that the wind is blowing out. Today, the wind should be blowing in, and there will be strong wind for a lot of the game. There are going to be issues with Imanaga as he develops in the US, but this is a good opportunity for him to face a bad Rockies team, and do it in the comfort of his home park. 

I kind of believe that the Rockies have the value in this game. The idea that you're going to pay -230 on the Cubs to win the game seems a bit crazy. No one knows how Imanaga will perform. Both teams had to travel yesterday, and neither were super close road games. I think the Rockies could pull this off, but I simply won't back it. The value is on the Rockies though. Instead, I think we see under seven runs in this game. The wind will be a factor and maybe the Cubs string together hits against Hudson, but I don't expect them to get a ton of runs. I'll back under seven at +102. 

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