Crooked Numbers Should Line Up The Scoreboard

Rays vs. Astros, 8:10 ET

With 30 teams in a league, you probably would think that it is not hard to write about the same games/teams over and over again. This isn't a complaint. I love what I do, but it does become a challenge. I was just noticing, though, that I tend to write about certain teams more than others. That does change from year to year. For example, I wrote about the Royals a ton last season because I was making bank on Seth Lugo. This year, I feel like I haven't written much about the Rays and Astros, but we are getting a good one between them today, so let's place our bet.

The Rays are above .500 again, and don't look now, but they are in second place in the AL East. For a team that has limited resources, is playing in a new field, can't seem to fully invest in a team, and always has their roster in flux because of injuries, trades, and statutory rape, the Rays are oddly successful. Tampa Bay is one of the few franchises that I really enjoy following because no matter what happens they at least seem to be competitive. Do I think they may the playoffs? Probably not. However, they can at least be a competitive club this year and maybe make a run at the postseason. Today they send out Shane Baz to the mound. Baz brings a 4-3 record with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. None of those numbers are that impressive. He has been slight better on the road than at home, but he has been significantly better during night games than day games. In three day starts, he has allowed 17 earned runs in 15 innings. In seven night starts, he has allowed 13 earned runs in 39.2 innings. This has been a tough month on him with three of his five starts seeing him allow five or more earned runs. He has pitched well against the Astros though, holding them to a .206 average in fairly limited experience. 

May 24, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz (11) throws a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Astros are also currently a second-place team. They are just a half game behind the Mariners, and if we are being honest, I would bet the Astros pull it out rather than the Mariners. Experience matters when you are chasing a playoff spot, and Houston certainly has that over Seattle. We are getting ahead of ourselves thinking about the playoffs right now, but that's what the whole point of the regular season is, so I like to keep the thought at the forefront at least. Today the Astros send out Ryan Gusto to the bump in hopes of getting a win for Houston. He is 3-2 with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Just like Baz, these aren't numbers that I'm overly impressed with. He is showing that he is not quite as good at home, but almost all of his work has come there. He only has four relief appearances on the road this season. He also has never faced the Rays.

I don't particularly like either team in this matchup. I think the Rays are probably a little better suited for the victory, considering Baz has pitched better on the road and at night. Gusto isn't a great pitcher, but he also can be surprising at times and give quality innings. I think the better play here than on a side is to take the over. I don't think either pitcher will throw up goose eggs. 

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