Cortes and Yankees Finish Off the Twins

Twins vs. Yankees, 7:05 ET

I've mentioned that the Twins need to win games if they want a chance to make the playoffs. The worst thing for them to do is play the Yankees apparently. The Yankees are 5-1 against them and now go for the sixth win in seven games on the season series. If the Twins keep losing like this, you won't need to worry about these potential playoff matchups - the Twins just won't be involved.

Sonny Gray is the one who tries to stop the bleeding for the Twins. If you need a bit of a reminder, Gray at one point was a Yankee pitcher. It... did not go well. In 2018 his full season with the Yankees, when he was in New York he was absolutely awful. He had a 6.98 ERA in 15 appearances - that's right, they took him out of their rotation because he was so bad. He has obviously rebounded since and is putting together a respectable campaign. This is the first time that he has had to face the Yankees since he left the team. August was great for Gray, but in his first start in September he allowed two earned runs in four innings. He left the start due to tightness in his hamstring.

Nestor Cortes is having a really nice season so far. On the year he has a 2.68 ERA and has had very few starts that put the Yankees in jeopardy of losing the game. In fact, he's only had three starts on the season where he has allowed four earned runs, none have had more allowed. One of those starts, of course, was against the Twins. The one game that the Twins have won in the series this season. Cortes has produced three straight quality starts, and four of his six post All-Star break starts have been quality. Yankee Stadium has been good to Cortes this season, he has a 2.20 ERA and has only allowed five of his 16 home runs at home.

I think the Yankees win this game. I know the Twins need it, and I'm sure that Sonny Gray gives them the best chance on their pitching staff, but Cortes at home is too good. The Yankees at -140 is a decent price, but I really do try to find plays that are not over 130. The Yankees are 26-22 in one-run games. Meaning that of their 83 wins, 57 of them have covered the run line. I'm going that way today at +160.

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