Conference Tournament Looks And Leans

Conference Tournament Bets

Every year, my friends go out to Vegas for the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. They've gone for years, and they are in the Circa Stadium Swim promo video. They do this thing where they buy college basketball player jerseys to wear that day. It's really cool, and it was fun the time I went with. However, I've also been to Vegas for the Conference Tournament, and I almost feel like that is better. It is a little less crowded, there are still games all day, and usually the games are more meaningful. Before we get to the official March Madness, we need to get through the Conference Tournaments. I'm going to share a few thoughts on different conference futures that I have, and maybe we can get some slips to fund some of the NCAA Tournament bets we will make.  

ACC

I won't be betting this unless a book allows me to combine Duke with someone else. I think there is a chance that certain teams could take Duke down, but it seems like it would be such a longshot that it really isn't worth it. The Blue Devils are -350 to win the ACC Tournament, and I don't recommend betting that outright. They will be a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they lose, so there really is no pressure on them. If anyone could take them down, I think the best option might be Miami. Again, I won't touch it. I just think it would be a waste of money.

Big 12

This might be the most intriguing conference to me. If they were healthy, I'd be backing Texas Tech. At +1700 I still like them because they've shown they can beat anyone. They've beaten Duke, Arizona, Houston, and Iowa State. They have lost their past two games, though, so it isn't all rainbows and sunshine for them. Iowa State is too inconsistent for me. Houston at 2:1 is intriguing because I do think winning the Big 12 Tournament will help their seeding. Maybe it does nothing for them, but defense can win games in these tournaments, and Houston has the best of the four main teams in this group. Kansas has the best player, so I could see them winning at +800. I think for value Kansas is best. If I were picking outright, I think Houston is my choice.

(Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images)

Ivy League

There are only four teams remaining, so this is a bit easier. Yale, to me, looks like the best team left. They were 23-5 overall for the season, and no one else in the league had a better record. If they beat Cornell, who they are 1-1 against this season, they face Harvard or Penn. They were 1-1 against Harvard in two close games, and they were 2-0 against Penn with one game close and the other a bit easier. This isn't a "I can't believe the books made a mistake!" This is more of a Yale should win two games against inferior competition, but you're going to be sweating this. 

SEC

This is a bit more open. Florida is certainly playing the best at the moment and they are -180 to win the Conference Tournament. They look like they could run the table and win another championship. Keep in mind, they need to win just three games to make it to the Championship. However, I do think Arkansas has a chance. They are +600 and I think that is a good look. If you want to parlay some favorites, Duke and Florida are even money in a parlay. I don't hate that. I'll put a small wager on Arkansas, though. I can always hedge if the two square off in the championship. 

West Coast Tournament

It really is down, in my opinion, to if you like Saint Mary's or Gonzaga. I personally think Gonzaga wins this. At -180, it is pretty expensive, but I do think you're still getting a bit of value. The only other team that would give Gonzaga issues is Santa Clara and they are +700, also facing Saint Mary's tonight. Gonzaga wont have to get through both of them, just one. And they were just rocked by Saint Mary's which means they can get some quick revenge. -180 is honestly a bit of a steal. 

I think the Big 10 will be won by Michigan, but I don't have odds for whatever reason. I'm not sure it is worth playing them anyway as they are likely to be heavy favorites. I don't really love the idea of playing a lot of futures on these teams winning a ton of games. You're likely to get fairly similar prices in the Championship game a lot of times. Duke, for example will be probably -400 on the moneyline against anyone in the Championship. If you're going to pay -350 for them to win multiple games, it makes more sense to pay -400 for them to win one game in March Madness. 

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