Two 'Locks' For College Hoops Saturday In BYU Vs. Kansas, Indiana Vs. UCLA

Saturday’s college hoops slate has a couple of lines begging to be played, so I’m keeping it simple: two sides, two unit-sized swings, and no cute parlays. BYU-Kansas and Indiana-UCLA feature ranked-level talent and major conference stakes, but the edges show up in the less-glamorous stuff. 

Kansas wins by defending shots instead of chasing steals, which matters against a BYU offense that can get streaky when the looks aren’t clean. UCLA, meanwhile, turns into a different animal in Los Angeles, especially guarding the arc. Indiana’s 3-point dependency plus the cross-country trip is a rough combo, and I’m happy to fade the post-court-storming emotional high.

College Basketball Bet Slip for Saturday 

• Kansas Jayhawks -3.5 (-105), up to -4, vs. BYU Cougars via FanDuel, risking 1.05 units (u).
• UCLA Bruins -3.5 (-115), up to -4, vs. Indiana Hoosiers via DraftKings, risking 1.15u.

#13 BYU Cougars at #14 Kansas Jayhawks (-3.5), 4:30 p.m. ET

Both are 5-2 in league play, but Kansas has better offensive and defensive ratings in Big XII games. The Jayhawks are fifth nationally in defensive effective field goal shooting, which blends 2- and 3-point shooting percentages, and 345th in defensive turnover rate. Meaning, instead of gambling on defense, Kansas just stays in front of ball-handlers and forces tough shots. 

Cougars superstar freshman A.J. Dybantsa comes in with more hype. Yet, Jayhawks freshman phenom Darryn Peterson might end up being a better pro and taken ahead of Dybantsa in the 2026 NBA Draft. Peterson is a better shooter and ball-handler and has gone ballistic in his few home games, where he is scoring 26.3 points per game. 

Kansas has a strong home-court advantage historically, especially in conference play, and is in better form. Per Haslam Metrics, BYU is 323rd nationally in "momentum," 258th in "consistency," and 352nd in "away/home court" efficiency. The Jayhawks are 90th in momentum and 93rd in consistency despite playing the fourth-toughest schedule in college hoops. 

Indiana Hoosiers at UCLA Bruins (-3.5), 5 p.m. ET 

The Bruins are just a different team at home, especially on defense. They struggle on the road in Big Ten games because they are college kids traveling across two time zones. UCLA has only allowed 70+ points in three of 12 home games. The Hoosiers live and die on 3-pointers, and the Bruins are second in Big Ten games for defensive 3-point percentage, per Ken Pom. 

They have only shot better than 32% from behind the arc in one of their six road games, and that was against Rutgers, which has the second-worst defensive 3-point percentage in the conference among 18 teams. (Yes, I know that's confusing because we are talking about the "Big Ten"). Bruins head coach Mick Cronin's teams are known for tenacious perimeter defense. 

Furthermore, the Hoosiers are traveling across two time zones for Saturday's game, and due to the nightlife and recreational marijuana, Los Angeles is a challenging business trip for professional athletes, including college students nowadays, thanks to NIL. 

Lastly, after losing the previous four to the best teams in the Big Ten, Indiana has won back-to-back games over Rutgers and Purdue. But Hoosiers fans stormed the court when their team beat Purdue Tuesday, and typically, I like to fade college teams after big wins.

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