3 Best Bets For Saturday Big Ten, Pac-12, Big East Tournament Games

Okay, okay, okay. I had a little rally Friday betting on the 2024 men's college basketball conference tournaments following a 0-3 start Thursday. I hit two of three picks Friday after losing three coin-flip games. Granted, one of my two covers was by a half-point and I needed a lock-down free-throw shooter to miss at the end of regulation to get home. That said, I'll take what I can get at this point since most of these March Madness 2024 cashes or losses are going to nail-biters. 

College Basketball Conference Tournaments: Saturday, March 16th 

The odds below are the best available at the time of writing.

Big Ten Semifinals: 3-seed Nebraska vs. 2-seed Illinois (-4.5), 3 p.m. ET

The Cornhuskers will be a popular pick to pull off an upset here or at least to cover the spread. They beat the Indiana Hoosiers 93-66 Friday in the Big Ten quarterfinals while the Fighting Illini rallied to squeak past the Ohio State Buckeyes. Plus, Nebraska lost to Illinois 87-84 on the road in overtime last month and the Cornhuskers covered as +10 underdogs. 

However, the Fighting Illini have a much better shot profile. Per Bart Torvik, they have a better dunk rate per 2-point field goal attempt on both ends of the floor. Illinois forces opponents into more inefficient, long-mid-range jumpers and shoots fewer than Nebraska. 

Fighting Illini forward Quincy Guerrier drives past Nebraska Cornhuskers PF Rienk Mast at State Farm Center in Champaign, Illinois. (Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports)

The Fighting Illini have a below-average defensive 3-point rate yet they rank sixth in 3-point-attempt rate (3PAr) allowed out of 363 D-1 schools, per Ken Pom. Preventing teams from shooting threes is more predictive than 3-point conversion rates. On that note, the Cornhuskers are 310th in defensive 3PAr. 

Illinois should win the free-throw battle and beat Nebraska on the glass. Per Ken Pom, the Cornhuskers are 218th in offensive rebounding rate, 217th defensively, and 193rd in offensive FT/FGA rate. Whereas the Fighting Illini are 18th in offensive rebounding, 66th in offensive FT/FGA rate, and 38th defensively. 

BET 1.08u on Illinois -4.5 (-108) at DraftKings. The Fighting Illini are bet-able up to -6. 

_____________________________

Big East Championship: 2-seed Marquette vs. 1-seed UConn, 6:30 p.m. ET

Initially, I thought there was no chance the Golden Eagles could keep this game close without All-Big East First Team PG Tyler Kolek. Then I got a text from my best friend, who's a UConn alum, and he said: "I would bet Marquette today because they have enough firepower to stay within single digits." 

Then I looked at what college basketball nerds Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam thought of this game. I was surprised to see they thought the Golden Eagles +4.5 to +5 underdogs vs. the Huskies. First of all, Marquette's head coach, Shaka Smart, is a good tournament-basketball coach. 

UConn Huskies guard Cam Spencer drives the ball up the court against Marquette Golden Eagles guard Kam Jones at XL Center. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)

Second, the Golden Eagles lost 74-67 at home to the Huskies without Kolek and got crushed 81-53 in Connecticut with him. But, Kolek had one of his worst games of the season vs. UConn. He scored just 7 points on 2-of-11 shooting with more turnovers than assists (4-3). 

Finally, everyone is going to bet the Huskies regardless of the spread because of Kolek's absence and UConn's 2-0 record vs. Marquette in the regular season. Fading public favorites is usually a good starting point for betting in March Madness. 

BET 1.12u on the Golden Eagles +9.5 (-112) at DraftKings. Give me Marquette down to +8. 

_____________________________

Pac-12 Championship: 4-seed Oregon vs. 3-seed Colorado (-2.5), 9 p.m. ET 

I like the idea of fading the Ducks after they just upset the 1-seed Arizona Wildcats 67-59 in the Pac-12 semifinals. Arizona gave that game away more than Oregon won it. The Buffaloes were 2-0 vs. the Ducks during the regular season, winning their first meeting 86-70 and the second 79-75. 

Furthermore, the sharper offshore sportsbooks make Colorado's spread pricier. Typically, the legal U.S. operations copy those offshore oddsmakers such as Bookmaker, Betcris, and Pinnacle Sportsbook. The college basketball nerds — Ken Pom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam — agree that the Buffaloes should be -4 to -6 favorites. 

Colorado Buffaloes guard KJ Simpson defends Oregon Ducks guard Jackson Shelstad at the CU Events Center. (Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

Finally, Colorado should win three of the "four factors". Per Ken Pom, the Buffaloes rank third in the Pac-12 for offensive rebounding, second in FT/FGA rate, and first in both 3-point and free-throw shooting. Oregon is eighth in the conference in both defensive rebounding and 3-point percentage and ninth in FT/FGA rate. 

BET 1.1u on Colorado -2.5 (-110) at Caesars. The Buffaloes are playable up to -3.5. 

_____________________________

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.