College Basketball Betting Picks For Wednesday Include Badgers Upsetting Ohio State At Home
College basketball betting can be extremely frustrating. Missed free throws, bad officiating, and/or poor strategy often ruin covers. However, that's also what makes it exciting. We had a HORRIBLE beat Tuesday night and still posted a winning day. Hard to complain about that. But, I'm going to anyway...
College Basketball Betting Picks Recap, January 9
Texas (+5.5) over Cincinnati ✅
Yale (-6.5) over Brown ✅
Wake Forest (-3) over Florida State ❌
Northern Illinois (+3) over Western Michigan ❌
Kansas State (-1.5) over West Virginia ✅
Texas led for a large chunk of the game and then the teams went back-and-forth at the end, but the +5 wasn't ever in real danger. Yale never trailed once against Brown and Kansas State dominated the second half over West Virginia. Happy with those picks.
Wake Forest was a miss, no question. But Northern Illinois really, really ruined my night. They led by as many as 17 points over Western Michigan. In fact, WM didn't get its first lead of the game until there were just 20 seconds left. Even then, the +3 looked great.
But, NIU couldn't get it done in overtime and even blew the cover. This is the stuff that will drive you nuts as a college basketball betting analyst:
Northern Illinois cost us a 4-1 college basketball betting night with an implosion against Western Michigan on Tuesday night. (Screenshot: ESPN.com)
But, it happens. We move on.
2024 record: 11-9-3 (official picks), 3-2 (leans)
College Basketball Betting Picks, January 10
Massive slate tonight, so I have a jam-packed college basketball betting card:
Purdue Fort Wayne (+3.5) over Youngstown State
Buyer beware: Youngstown has burned me badly twice this season. This time, I'm betting against them. The fact is, though, that IPFW is a better squad. Their net effiency, according to Ken Pom, is a point-and-a-half better.
In a strange trend, three of the last four winners of the games between these two teams have been the away team. Plus, IPFW is 4-1 ATS against Youngstown over the past five games.
Fort Wayne has been very consistent this season: they beat teams worse than them (13-0 against teams rated 155th or worse) and lose to teams better than themselves (0-3 vs. teams inside the Top 155). Youngstown, statistically, is worse.
Better team getting points in a place they've won before with little homecourt advantage is a great place to start the college basketball betting card.
Saint Joseph's (-4) over Saint Louis
The gap between these two teams in terms of net efficiency is MASSIVE. St. Joe's rates as one of the 75 best college teams in the country right now. St. Louis ranks 211th. St. Joe's rates nearly 14 points better and yet they're only giving up four points here.
Plus, Saint Louis' leading scorer, Michael Meadows, is questionable with a head injury. While St. Joe's has had some stumbles in an otherwise good season (loss against Texas A&M Commerce is BAD), they also have some impressive victories (won at Villanova, beat Princeton at home).
Erik Reynolds II and the Saint Joseph's Hawks are on my Wednesday college basketball betting card. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
St. Louis has yet to beat a team of Joe's caliber (0-4 against teams inside the Top 105) and really struggles against superior opponents (2-8 against teams inside the Top 125).
This is one of the best plays, for me, on Wednesday's card.
The Citadel (+11.5) over Furman
The Citadel sits 70 spots behind Furman on the Ken Pom ratings, which isn't enough to justify this large of a spread. Not to mention that one of Furman's best players, Marcus Foster, is out with injury. Furman shoots just 29.5% from 3, while The Citadel hits 35% of its shots from deep.
That's exactly what you want in a big underdog in college basketball. The Citadel can shoot the 3 and it features a balanced attack with all five starters averaging at least nine points. Plus, it is led by guard play which is critical on the road.
The Citadel beat Notre Dame on the road by 20 points. Furman's best win was a home victory over Belmont. In fact, that's Furman's only win over a team ranked inside the Top 250 (Citadel is 220).
Chicago State (+2) over Fairleigh Dickinson
This is a battle of two bad teams, where the slightly better bad team is an underdog against the worse bad team. Chicago State has two impressive victories this season, including an improbable road victory against Northwestern. It also beat Stetson at home. Dickinson doesn't have a single victory against a Top 225 team. Chicago State has two.
According to Team Rankings, Chicago State leads FDU in all key metrics. A team that won at Northwestern certainly isn't going to be intimidated playing a road game against FDU.
Southern Illinois (-9.5) over Valparaiso
Talk about a mismatch of epic proportions. Southern Illinois should be embarrassed if it can't run Valpo out of the gym in this game. The Salukis rate inside the Top 100 and have their eyes squarely on a Missouri Valley Conference championship and NCAA Tournament bid. Valparaiso just wants to crack the Top 300.
Southern Illinois' effective field goal percentage is TEN points higher than Valpo and they hold a 5.5% edge in opponent effective field goal percentage, as well. The Salukis average 10 points per game more than opponents and Valpo is -8 in point differential.
These teams have played three common opponents: Chicago State, UIC and Belmont. Southern Illinois beat all of them by double-digits. Valparaiso lost to all of them.
Wisconsin (+1.5) over Ohio State
Wisconsin is the better team and Ohio State is getting too much juice because it's playing at home in a Big Ten matchup. The Badgers rate as the 19th best team in the country and Ohio State is #33.
Wisconsin has played an incredibly tough schedule (nine of its 14 games have been against teams rated inside the Top 60 and it has two wins over Top 20 opponents) and sit at 11-3. Two of its losses came to Top 6 teams in the nation (Arizona and Tennessee). Plus, one of Wisconsin's Top 60 wins came on the road against Michigan State. MSU is more highly-rated than OSU.
MADISON, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 06: AJ Storr #2 of the Wisconsin Badgers gestures before the start of game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kohl Center on January 06, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Conversely, Ohio State has only played two Top 60 teams this year. They did score a major neutral-court win over Alabama, though. They lost at home to Texas A&M and nearly lost to Rutgers.
Wisconsin seems like the team better equipped for this mid-January Big Ten test, even on the road.
Florida (-2) over Ole Miss
This spread simply isn't large enough. Florida rates as the 36th best team in the country with a +16.5 net efficiency. Mississippi is solid, but not on the Gators' level. Ole Miss rates at 83rd with a +9.3 net efficiency.
Ole Miss is 13-1, though, and home underdogs. I think Vegas wants people to bet it. Don't fall for it. Mississippi played its first Top 40 opponent over the weekend (Tennessee) and lost by 26 points. Its best wins are over Memphis and NC State. Good wins, but not teams on the level of Florida. The Rebels have feasted on mainly very inferior opponents.
Florida has struggled against good teams (1-4 vs. teams inside the Top 60), but teams like Ole Miss are its sweet spot. The Gators beat Michigan (69th) by five, Richmond (91st) by 11 and Florida State (98th) by 21. Two of those wins came on a neutral court.
Florida should be able to handle the home crowd and come out with a victory.
Colorado (-3.5) over California
Again, just not understanding this spread unless bookmakers simply think Colorado can't win on the road. The Buffaloes are the 30th best squad in the country (+17 net efficiency) and Cal (+2) rates 139th. Over a 100 spot difference!
Colorado shoots better, defends better, fouls less and shares the ball better. The Buffaloes are a little banged up, but still have their two best players performing well (KJ Simpson and Tristan da Silva). The Buffalos shoot a ridiculous 40% from 3-point range and 77% from the line. That has allowed them to convert on over 50% of their total field goals.
KJ Simpson, J'Vonne Hadley and Tristan da Silva of the Colorado Buffaloes. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Cal has played five opponents rated inside the Top 70 and lost to all of them by at least seven points. Colorado has three Top 70 victories. They are 0-3 on the road this year and I think that's getting too much attention. That's simply small-sample bias and I'll happily lay the points as my final official college basketball betting pick for Wednesday night.
Other college basketball betting picks I like...
Winthrop (-5.5) over Presbyterian
Presbyterian is the 300th-rated team in the country and should be double-digit underdogs to just about everyone.
Navy (-3.5) over Holy Cross
Holy Cross is literally one of the seven worst teams in college basketball and Navy is 100 spots higher.
Indiana State (ML +120) over Drake
Indiana State is a fringe Top 50 team, while Drake sits outside the Top 80.