College Basketball Betting Picks For Tuesday Include Pair Of Big 12 Matchups With Mispriced Spreads

We're back with another slate of college basketball betting picks for Tuesday. Would have liked a better result on Monday, but missed free throws haunt even the best college basketball bettors...

College Basketball Betting Picks Recap, January 8

Howard (-4.5) over South Carolina State ❌

Norfolk State (+2) over North Carolina Central ↔️

We lost by a half point in Howard and pushed on Norfolk State. That's three pushes in the last five picks, so I guess Vegas is going just fine making these lines!

2024 record: 8-7-3

College Basketball Betting Picks, January 9

There's a HUGE slate in college basketball on Tuesday, so I think we have some really nice options on the board. I'm confident in a big day so let's get after it...

Texas (+5.5) over Cincinnati

I was surprised to see that the majority of the money is coming in on Cincinnati. Initially, I liked Texas but thought there was a chance this was a sucker line since Texas is a ranked team and Cincinnati isn't.

Yet, people are backing the Bearcats at home. Part of the reason, I'm guessing, is the homecourt advantage. While I think Cincinnati should get a bump for being at home, this is too much. Cincinnati is slightly better than Texas in net efficiency, according to Ken Pom, but not enough to justify nearly six points.

I've got Max Abmas and the Texas Longhorns on my college basketball betting card for Tuesday. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Plus, Cincinnati is without its best three-point shooting threat, CJ Fredrick. The senior guard is second on the team in three-point attempts (despite missing the past three games) and is shooting 44 percent from deep. That's a major loss in a game like this.

Cincinnati is coming off a big win on the road at No. 12 BYU and Texas just lost to Texas Tech. That's also helping to increase this spread. Texas has a better effective field goal percentage this season (54 percent to 52 percent) and a slightly better opponent effective field goal percentage.

I'm happily taking the points with the Longhorns here.

Yale (-6.5) over Brown

Yale sits just outside the Top 100 in net efficiency and are the second-best team in the Ivy League (Princeton). Brown, on the other hand, ranks 260th. Any team that sits 150+ spots ahead of another deserves to be a double-digit favorite.

Yet, Yale is giving Brown just 6.5 in this spot. We've been burned a few times by free-throw shooting, but Yale has a decided advantage in that arena. The Bulldogs shoot 72 percent from the line, while Brown hits under than 64 percent.

Yale doesn't turn the ball over much (13 percent turnover rate) and they play defense without fouling. Plus, they shoot 34 percent from three.

The Bulldogs should really with relative ease in this matchup.

Northern Illinois (+3) over Western Michigan

One of my favorite college basketball betting strategies is to bet better teams as slight underdogs on the road. As I've mentioned many times, the home court as an advantage is generally overrated, especially when it comes to smaller schools with small crowds. Western Michigan hasn't beaten a Division-I opponent at home this season.

In this case, Northern Illinois (-6.3 net efficiency) ranks just inside the Top 250 while Western Michigan (-9.8 net efficiency) sits at 289th. One of the biggest problems for the Broncos is that they cannot hang onto the basketball. They turn it over on a whopping 17% of their possessions.

Northern Illinois and David Coit are on my college basketball betting card for Tuesday. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Western Michigan has just one win this season against teams inside the Top 250. Northern Illinois is 3-1 against teams rated between 180-300. They are the better team and deserve to be favored. Let's grab the points for insurance.

Wake Forest (-3) over Florida State

Theme bet! Much better team not getting enough points on the road. Wake Forest is a Top 50 team with a net efficiency of nearly +16. Florida State is 1-3 against teams inside the Top 60 with an average margin of -7.5 in those games.

Conversely, Florida State rates outside the Top 100 teams (+7 net efficiency). Wake Forest hasn't lost to a team outside the Top 100 this season. Plus, they've played a very difficult schedule (8 games against Top 100 opponents) and they are 11-3, including 3-0 in ACC play.

Wake Forest is a team to watch this season, especially come NCAA Tournament time. They have three terrific guards who all average over 16 points per game. They shoot 38 percent from three and 80 percent from the line. Plus, they have a seven-footer in Efton Reid who averages over nine boards per game.

Florida State, meanwhile, has no players averaging more than 12.6 points per game and they shoot 68 percent from the free-throw line. I don't see how they stick with Wake in this one.

Kansas State (-1.5) over West Virginia

Sucker bet... sucker bet... sucker bet... I DON'T CARE. Yes, this has all the earmarks of a sucker bet. Kansas State is 11-3 and barely favored over a 5-9 West Virginia squad without one of its best players (center Jesse Edwards broke his wrist in December).

K-State is a fringe tournament team (rated 61st overall) and West Virginia sits over 70 spots lower (133rd). WVU is slightly better than their record indicates. But, not enough to justify this low of a spread against a much more talented Wildcats squad.

Kansas State is one of two Big 12 road squads on my Tuesday college basketball betting card. (Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

West Virginia has played seven opponents this season inside the Top 100. They're 0-7. Kansas State is 9-0 against teams outside the Top 75. The biggest knock on the Wildcats is that they've only played one true road game this season. Still, that's not worth the seven points I believe this spread is off by.

Other college basketball betting picks I like...

These aren't official plays, but other games I like and might place a bet on as the action draws closer.

Akron (-7) over Ball State

Akron is 200 spots higher than Ball State. This spread should be double-digits.

Richmond (+3) over Loyola Chicago

Loyola rates outside the Top 120, while Richmond is a Top 100 team.

That's it for me, good luck everyone!