College Basketball Betting Picks For Thursday Include Pair Of Road Favorites Who Should Roll
Wednesday night was very good to us, and yet still could have been better. I really feel like we're very close to catching fire with our college basketball betting picks. Tough beats and pushes are a regular around here, but that has to change eventually. Right?
College Basketball Betting Picks Recap, January 24 (3-1-1)
Virginia (-6) over NC State ↔️
Gardner-Webb (+4.5) over Longwood ✅
Maryland (+5.5) over Iowa ✅
Southern Miss (-3.5) over Coastal Carolina ✅
Villanova (+3.5) over St. John's ❌
Virginia dominated the majority of their contest against NC State before falling apart in the second half. We should have coasted to an easy cover, but instead settle for an overtime push. Could have been worse, could have been better.
Our three victories mostly required very little sweat. Our two underdogs won outright and Souther Miss cruised to an easy double-digit win. Villanova didn't show up against St. John's and I really need to learn my lesson about betting the Big East. It doesn't work out for me.
2024 record: 34-37-6 (48%)
College Basketball Betting Picks, January 25
Advanced data courtesy Ken Pom and Team Rankings.
Northern Kentucky (-3.5) over Purdue Fort Wayne
These teams played at Fort Wayne this season and Purdue cruised to victory. One would think that would make them the favorites in this one, but they're not. This is a classic example of the line better matching the matchup than the previous matchup.
Northern Kentucky is much better at home than on the road and are riding a three-game winning streak. PFW is going the other direction. Since beating NKU and Detroit, they've lost five-straight games including three on the road. They lost to IUPUI, one of the worst teams in Division-I.
Marques Warrick and Northern Kentucky are on my college basketball betting card for Thursday night (Photo: Sam Greene/The Enquirer/USA Today Network)
NKU has a huge advantage on the offensive glass and that's going to come into play here. PFW fouls a lot, and offensive rebounds often generate foul calls. I'll swallow the points with the better team at home in a revenge spot.
New Mexico State (+4.5) over Sam Houston State
New Mexico State actually boasts better numbers in effective field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage defense despite being a slightly inferior team overall. The reason for that is they shoot 35% from three, which we love in a road underdog.
Plus, NMSU is playing its best basketball of the season right now, having won four of the past five. They struggle a bit on the road, which admittedly a concern. However, in SHSU's last four home games against Division-I opponents, they didn't win any by more than four points. We're betting that streak continues.
Montana (-6) over Portland State
This is a major mismatch and the only mitigating factor is the homecourt for Portland. Montana is nearly a Top 110 team this season while Portland State rates 266th. The gap between these teams on effective field goal percentage is rather insane. Montana shoots 54% from the field, effectively, while PRST sits at just 46%.
Since both teams defend around the same, the offensive advantage is just too much to overcome. Portland can't count on forcing turnovers, either, because Montana takes care of the basketball (13% turnover percentage). Since starting the season 2-4. Montana has won 11 of 13 games.
They've also posted several road victories against teams like Portland State (and a couple better teams) during that stretch, wining all of those by at least eight points.