College Basketball Betting Picks For Thursday Include A Lot Of Road Favorites
"College basketball betting can be extremely frustrating."
That's how I started Wednesday's column. Boy, did I nail that one. Good thing, too, because that's about the only thing I nailed. We had an incredibly bad string of luck. Let's get into it...
College Basketball Betting Picks Recap, January 10
Purdue Fort Wayne (+3.5) over Youngstown State ❌
Saint Joseph's (-4) over Saint Louis ❌
The Citadel (+11.5) over Furman ❌
Chicago State (+2) over Fairleigh Dickinson ✅
Southern Illinois (-9.5) over Valparaiso ❌
Wisconsin (+1.5) over Ohio State ✅
Florida (-2) over Ole Miss ❌
Colorado (-3.5) over California ❌
Yeah, Wednesday was rough. But, really, we didn't make bad picks. Rather, we got incredibly unlucky. Southern Illinois led by 11 points with 35 seconds left and the basketball. They decided to dribble out the shot clock and hand the ball back to Valpo. Which means that Valpo should have done the same.
However, they elected to jack up a three-pointer, missed, and some dude came flying down the lane and dunked home the rebound with under one second left. Bad beat. Horrible beat. Ridiculous beat. Super gross. I'm still angry, if you didn't notice.
If that was the only bad beat, I might not be so upset. But, our card was riddled with tough losses. St. Joseph's took a 20-point lead over St. Louis and, at one point, had a win probability of over 97%. They lost thanks to the Billikens shooting an insane 54% from three.
That wasn't even our only beat where our side had a 20+ point lead. Nope, Colorado also led Cal by 20 points. Their win probability peaked at 98% in the second half. Yet, they went on to lose thanks to California hitting 14 three-pointers.
Really rough day, but that's OK! The picks were solid, the results just didn't follow. But, we'll get back on track. The process is strong.
2024 record: 13-15-3 (official picks), 5-3 (leans)
College Basketball Betting Picks, January 11
Drexel (-13.5) over North Carolina A&T
This is a big number, but Drexel should cover this easily. They are inside the Top 110 teams this season. A&T is inside the Bottom 20. Drexel's net rating is over 20 points higher.
And, if you look at similar games this season, Drexel demolishes teams in A&T's range, and A&T gets pulverized by teams like Drexel. The Dragons have played three teams outside the Top 300 this season, two on the road. Their average margin of victory in those games is 26 points. They won all three by at least 21.
Conversely, NC A&T has played four opponents rated between 100-150. They are 0-4 with an average margin of defeat of 18 points. Look for this to be a bloodbath, and I'll lay the 13.5 with Drexel.
Morehead State (-7.5) over Eastern Illinois
All of Morehead's losses this season have come against Top 100 opponents. They nearly beat Indiana on the road, losing by one. Morehead has played seven games against teams outside the Top 220 and won all but one of them by at least 10 points. Eastern Illinois rates as outside the Top 300.
Eastern Illinois has played one game against a team in Morehead's rating range and they got beat by 24 points (Loyola-Chicago). Half of their wins have come against non-Division-I opponents.
Pretty simple equation: Morehead loses to good teams and pounds terrible teams. Eastern Illinois is terrible.
Tarleton (+4.5) over Cal Baptist
Tarleton is better than Cal Baptist and getting more than one possession on the spread. I love that. Granted the teams are very similar, so this should be close to a pick'em. Thus, I think Baptist is getting just a little too much homecourt love here.
Neither team shoots particularly well from three, but Tarleton is far superior from the free throw line (74% vs. 65%). Tarleton also has two forwards averaging over 12 points per game and Cal Baptist can't really match up down low. Those two advantage work really well on the road getting points.
Louisiana Tech (-6) over Middle Tennessee
Top 100 team (LA Tech) facing a team outside the Top 275 and not giving enough points at home? That's like the Dan Z. bread-and-butter. Tech has played three opponents rated between 260 and 300 and won all of them by at least 13 points.
Middle Tennessee did have a nice home win against Stephen F. Austin, but LA Tech beat SFA by more points and did it on the road. Both of these teams also played Southern Utah. MTSU lost by six, while La Tech won by 14.
LA Tech is in a bit of rut, losing four of their past five. However, those games were all against Top 200 opponents. Middle Tennessee hasn't beaten a Division-1 opponent in over a month. They also haven't played in over a week. Give me Louisiana Tech.
San Francisco (-10) over San Diego
San Francisco is a sneaky-good team with a solid shot to reach the NCAA Tournament. They only rate behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the WCC and are Top 60 overall. San Diego isn't terrible, but they're just not on that level. They rate as the 133rd best team in the country.
I just don't think people realize how good San Francisco is this year and they should look to flex their muscles in this contest. They shoot 36% from three, 76% from the line and 50% from the field overall. Those are strong numbers.
The San Francisco Dons are on my college basketball betting card for Thursday night. (Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
San Diego shoots just 43% from the field and they're not adept defensively, allowing opponents to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 50%. San Francisco should have no trouble scoring. Really the only thing we have to watch is San Diego getting hot from three. They do that occassionally. But, I trust SF to make it difficult for SD to get good looks. I'll lay the points.
UC Irvine (+1.5) over Hawaii
Playing in Hawaii is very hard for a lot of teams. Perhaps that's why UC Irvine, a team that's MUCH better than Hawaii, is an underdog. There's literally no other reason that the difficulty of playing on the island for Irvine to not be favored by at least five points (probably more).
Irvine is rated 76th overall and Hawaii is 149th. Their net rating is nearly nine points higher. Hawaii has 0 wins against teams rated in the Top 225! Their best win came against San Diego (257th). Conversely, Irvine won at USC (56th) and on a neutral court against Toledo (125th). They only have won loss to teams outside the Top 125 (at San Jose State) and that was back in November.
Irvine has won four straight and I think they'll be plenty focused on basketball and trying to get a big won. Give me the point-and-a-half.
Other college basketball betting picks I like...
Hofstra (-4.5) over Northeastern
Hofstra is 100 spots higher on Ken Pom's ratings than Northeastern.
Appalachian State (-7.5) over Coastal Carolina
App State is just outside the Top 100 and Coastal is just inside the Top 300.
Delaware (-7) over Campbell
Similar story where Delaware is just way too much better than Campbell to not be laying 10+ points.
Western Illinois (+6.5) over UT Martin
These two teams are very similar, so I just feel like 6.5 points is too much in a game between evenly-matched teams where the homecourt advantage shouldn't be too much of a factor.