College Basketball Betting Picks For Sunday Include Pair Of Road Underdogs Not Getting Enough Respect
I send my apologies for not posting college basketball betting picks for Saturday. Full disclosure: Saturday is my off day and I just can't dedicate the time I need to give out the best possible picks. I don't want to half-ass these and I take them seriously. So, let's take a quick look back at Friday and then move on to Sunday's light slate...
College Basketball Betting Picks Recap, January 12
Siena (+10) over Canisius ✅
Minnesota (+4.5) over Indiana ❌
Dayton ML (+100) over Duquesne ✅
Nothing much to write here. Siena and Canisius played the close game we expected, Indiana blew out Minnesota and Dayton cruised easily over Duquesne. Another winning day in the books.
2024 record: 19-18-3 (official picks), 7-7 (leans), 26-25-3 (overall)
College Basketball Betting Picks, January 14
Mount St. Mary's (+5.5) over Iona
Iona is a better team than MSM, but not by this much. They're about 30 spots apart on Ken Pom's rankings, meaning the spread should be closer to two or three points. Especially for an in-conference game. Mount St. Mary's actually averages more points per game than Iona and they allow fewer points.
Plus, they're better than Iona in both offensive effective field goal percentage and opponent effective field goal percentage -- and both by a decent margin, according to Team Rankings. Iona is 1-3 this season against teams rated between 220-260, which is exactly where MSM sits.
Interestingly, Mount St. Mary's is 1-4 against teams rated between 200-300. However, none of those four losses came by more than six points and three were on the road.
Point is that this game should be close and I'm confident getting 5.5 points in that type of contest.
St. Peter's (-5.5) over Manhattan
This is basically the opposite handicap to the first pick. St. Peter's is far-and-away the better team in this matchup but Manhattan is getting a crazy homecourt advantage boost. Call me crazy, but I don't think the Manhattan gym is going to be packed on a Sunday with rabid Manhattan basketball fans.
In these games where the teams are basically playing in front of 100-150 people, I don't understand the heavy homecourt advantage baked into the spread. St. Peter's would be a double-digit favorite on a neutral court, as they sit over 100 spots in the power ratings than Manhattan. In fact, St. Peter's is 3-0 in similar road contests this season.
St. Peter's is on my college basketball betting card for Sunday. (Photo by Porter Binks/Getty Images)
Manhattan, on the other hand, has lost thee straight home games and the most recent two by double-digits. Both of these teams played Niagara, and St. Peter's beat them on the road while Manhattan lost at home. Peter's does have one bad road loss (at Fairleigh Dickinson) but that came back in November.
Otherwise, they feat on teams rated outside the Top 200. They allow 14 points per game less than Manhattan does and they average more points per game. I'll swallow the 5.5 here.
Delaware (+5.5) over UNC Wilmington
I could essentially write mostly the same points as I did in the Mount St. Mary's pick. These teams are nearly evenly-matched (13 spots difference in the power ratings) with UNC Wilmington giving way too many points for a game that figures to be close.
Delaware is 3-1 in similar road games and are way better against-the-spread (10-5 this year compared to 5-7 for Wilmington). Plus, the Hens hold an advantage both offensively and defensively in effective field goal percentage.
Simply put: too many points in a game between evenly-matched conference opponents where the homecourt shouldn't matter much.
That's it for me on a light slate of college hoops. Good luck to everyone with your college basketball betting picks on a Sunday!