College Basketball Betting Picks For Monday Include Badly Underpriced George Mason
There's a lot of afternoon basketball on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day but unfortunately I didn't have time this morning to attack the full slate. So, we'll focus our college basketball betting picks for Monday on the later games...
College Basketball Betting Picks Recap, January 15
Mount St. Mary’s (+5.5) over Iona ❌
St. Peter’s (-5.5) over Manhattan ✅
Delaware (+5.5) over UNC Wilmington ✅
Coming off winning days on Thursday and Friday, we posted another positive slate on Sunday. Not much to report here, just happy to have gone 8-4 over the last three columns.
2024 record: 21-19-3 (best bets), 7-7 (leans), 28-26-3 (total)
College Basketball Betting Picks, January 16
George Mason (-1.5) over George Washington
This might be the most mis-priced line on the entire slate. I get it: these teams look similar. Mason is 13-4 and GW is 13-3. Mason is 2-2 in A-10 play, George Washington is 2-1.
But, based on predictive metrics, George Mason is FAR superior. Like, it's not close. They are a Top 100 team with a net rating and George Washington barely cracks the Top 175. Mason's net rating is 9 points higher than GW.
This profiles as a simple case of the home team getting too much love given that they have similar records. Plus, George Washington has a common opponents advantage, having beaten VCU on the road while Mason lost to the Rams at home.
George Mason is on my college basketball betting card for Monday. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
That doesn't bother me, though, because all of Mason's four losses this season came to teams rated in the Top 120. They're 10-0 against teams rated 125 or below, which is where Washington finds itself.
Plus, George Washington has had some battles at home against far inferior opponents. They beat Navy by two, William & Mary by six, Alcorn State by four, and Maryland Eastern Shore by six. None of those teams is inside the Top 250.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi (+1.5) over Southeastern Louisiana
These teams rate out nearly equally, so from that standpoint this spread makes sense. However, A&M has a very major advantages that they can use to win this game on the road. Mainly, they dominate on the glass, averaging seven rebounds more per game than SELA.
The biggest weakness for A&M is that they play an aggressive style of defense that leads to a lot of turnovers but a lot of fouls. SELA struggles mightily to take care of the basketball, turning it over on 19% of their possessions. That's ... a lot.
But, even if A&M does pick up fouls, Louisiana can't really take advantage as they shoot under 70% from the free throw line. SELA opponents effectively shoot 54% from the floor, which gives A&M -- a team that can struggle to shoot -- a good chance to post some solid offense.
I think we've got the better team with a few important "strength-on-weakness" advantages so I'll take the 1.5.
North Carolina A&T (+3.5) over Hampton
In a battle between two of the worst teams in college basketball, I'm happy to take the points with the team that's slightly better. North Carolina A&T rates about 1.5 points better in net efficiency than Hampton as both squads sit JUST inside the Top 350 on the season.
What I like about this pick, similar to the Corpus Christi selection, is the turnover advantage. A&T actually does take care of the basketball, turning it over at just a 12% rate. Hampton, meanwhile, is at 18%. Plus, Hampton fouls a lot. A&T shoots 72% from the free throw line, which isn't bad for a team that stinks.
A&T has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio, while Hampton is negative in that department. Hampton's best player is sophomore forward Kyrese Mullen, who stands at 6'7". But, A&T has junior center Jason Murphy, who stands at 6'9" and averages nearly 1.5 blocks per game. He should make life difficult for Mullen, so I'll take A&T and the points.
Those are all my college basketball betting picks for Monday, good luck everyone!