Cold Weather Will Force Low Score

Dolphins vs. Chiefs, 8:00 ET

Taylor Swift. There I said her name, now I've fulfilled my duties as an NFL contributor with mentioning her name during a Chiefs game. Can we get down to business? I'm of course kidding, but I do kind of hope the Chiefs lose just so we can be done with that nonsense for the season. For now, let's focus on winning some money on the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs games.

The Dolphins had a solid season... or did they? They were 11-6, which is a nice record, and something a lot of teams would be envious of. However, the team was just 4-4 away from Miami. Kansas City did beat the Dolphins, but it was in Germany and it was a closer game than the final score would tell you. And, the final was only a 21-14 score. The Dolphins have an explosive offense. There is really no question about that. The problem I have is that explosive offense has disappeared in games against talented opponents this season. Against the Bills, 20 points. Against the Eagles, 17 points. Against the Chiefs, 14 points. Against the Titans (not a good team) 27 points. Against the Ravens, 19 points. And, finally, against the Bills in the most important game of their season, they score just 14 points. They really didn't beat any substantial team this season. Now they need to travel to Kansas City, where they have been average on the road this season and are expected to pull of the upset? I really doubt it.

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - JANUARY 07: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins reacts after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium on January 07, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Why would I doubt it could happen? There are two reasons: first, the Chiefs defense is playing great and has all season. Second, it is going to be extremely cold in Kansas City. There has been plenty of evidence that warm weather team struggle in cold climates. The Chiefs aren't without their own issues though. This season has been ugly for their wide receiving room. They lead the league in drops (and that includes Travis Kelce), and Patrick Mahomes has thrown 14 interceptions this season compared to just 27 touchdowns. This was the fewest yards that Mahomes has thrown in a season since 2019... He played two fewer games that season and had only 152 fewer yards. This is the most interceptions he's thrown in a season, and a lot of it is due to route running. This is the fewest touchdowns he has thrown since 2019, and again, two fewer games and only one less touchdown. This offense isn't just bad, they kind of suck. You have to imagine that maybe Mahomes can make magic happen, but if they win this it will be because their defense saves the day.

I'm taking the under in this game. If the Chiefs win, it will be because they hold the Dolphins to 20 or fewer points. If the Dolphins win, they could win by 40 or win by 2 and it be a 15-13 game. The range of outcomes tends to be on the lower side and with the weather, I don't expect this to be a high scoring game. I'll back the under 44 in this one.

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