Clay Travis' College Football Picks For Week 14: Cash In With Title Game Wins, Don't Bet Against Nick Saban
Okay, we fought our way back to respectability in the final week of the college football season, going 8-5 overall and putting our end of the regular season record at 75-84.
Still bad, but at least starting to climb out of the hole we dug the past two weeks.
With that in mind, I have nine conference title game week winner picks for you.
And when we hit all nine of these picks, we'll be back to dead even on the year.
So let's roll.
New Mexico State at Liberty -10
All Jamey Chadwell does is win.
He's now 12-0 on the year and somehow no one is hiring him despite what he has done the past three seasons. I know New Mexico State has the most stunning win of the season -- on the road at Auburn by three touchdowns two weeks ago -- but Liberty wins by two touchdowns.
The Flames stay scorching hot, winning by more than two touchdowns to get to 13-0.
SEATTLE, WA - OCTOBER 14: Oregon (RB) #0 Bucky Irving during a college football game between the Washington Huskies and the Oregon Ducks on October 14, 2023 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Oregon -9.5 vs. Washington
I know this is a massive number, but Washington has been playing with fire for weeks now and despite the fact that the Huskies won the earlier match up, I just think Oregon is a substantially better team now.
So much so that I like the Ducks by double digits and for Bo Nix to lock up with the Heisman with a scintillating performance on a Friday night in Las Vegas.
Oklahoma State at Texas, the over 54.5
Mike Gundy's team is a huge two touchdown+ underdog, but the Pokes were fortunate to win at home against BYU last week and I feel like Texas might well blow them out.
But then again it's Texas. And if there's one thing the Longhorns have taught us over the past 15 years it's that Texas always falls flat on its face at some point in every season.
So instead of laying a ton of points and expecting a big win, I'm going to roll with the over hitting instead. I think both teams go for 24 or more and the total soars way past this number.
Boise State at UNLV +2.5
Barry Odom's done an incredible job with UNLV this year and I think he caps off a 9-3 season with a conference championship. I feel even better since UNLV didn't play great last week in a loss to San Jose State.
Plus, can you imagine how crazy it would be if Boise State won the conference title after firing their coach?
Come on, that's bonkers.
UNLV wins outright, but take the points just to be safe.
SMU at Tulane, the over 48.5
Maybe I'm walking into a gambling buzzsaw here, but SMU has scored points against everyone this year, particularly down the stretch.
SMU has scored 55, 69, 36, 45, 38, and 59 in the past six weeks.
And you're telling me that suddenly they aren't going to score any points at all against Tulane? And that they aren't going to give up many either?
I just don't see it.
Especially since it's not like Tulane has the 1985 Bears defense. Plus, Tulane is scoring points too.
The over's the play and I'm so confident in that, tap the veins boys and girls, the over is our blood bank guarantee for the week.
AUBURN, ALABAMA - NOVEMBER 25: Head coach Nick Saban of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts to a call during the fourth quarter against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 25, 2023 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Georgia at Alabama +5.5
Maybe I'm an idiot -- and certainly that has been alleged a ton over the years and there is ample evidence to support it -- but Nick Saban with no one believing in his team is a recipe for gambling disaster.
I'm not saying the Tide is going to win, but Alabama was fortunate to win in 2021 at Auburn and everyone thought Georgia would romp the Tide. And then Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC title game -- yes, Georgia came back to win the title -- but Nick Saban's team is almost never an underdog and as good as I think Georgia is, this is a big number to need to win by, especially with all the pressure on Georgia.
Give me the Tide to cover here.
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - NOVEMBER 25: Blake Corum #2 of the Michigan Wolverines runs with the ball for yardage during the second half of a college football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Stadium on November 25, 2023 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The Michigan Wolverines won the game 30-24 to win the Big Ten East. (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
Michigan at Iowa, the over 34.5
Michigan is a 23-point favorite in a game with an over/under of 34.5.
That means Vegas is telling us Michigan wins something like 28-3?
That seems off.
I think Michigan's offense will have good success against Iowa and the pace of the game will dictate we surge past 34.5, yes, even in an Iowa game.
Give me the over in the Big Ten title game.
Louisville at Florida State -2.5
This is a bet on Mike Norvell's ability to get his team the win more than anything else.
Yes, Florida State is substantially weaker without Jordan Travis at quarterback, but it just went on the road and won at Florida. Now Louisville, which hasn't played that well down the stretch against inferior opponents, is traveling to a neutral site stadium coming off a tough loss to Kentucky and we essentially have an even number.
I just feel like FSU is much better at most positions than Louisville is and that will reveal itself even with a weaker quarterback.
Which is why ultimately FSU finds a way to get the win as a result. Give me the Seminoles by three or more.
Plus, and this is key, FSU may go for style points if they get up, I don't see them letting their foot off the gas since they don't just want to win, they want to impress the committee too.
Army-Navy, the under 30.5
It's a tradition, we love America at Outkick, but we always take the under in Army-Navy games.
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Okay, there you have it, boys and girls, let's get rich for one final weekend before the bowl games and go 9-0.