Chiefs Will Show Eagles They Are Still The Team To Beat On MNF

Published|Updated

One of the best NFL games this season wraps up Week 11. The Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) visits GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium for a Super Bowl LVII rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) on Monday Night Football.

I leaned to taking the points with the Eagles until digging deeper into this matchup. However, I cannot get there with Philadelphia. Despite their 8-1 record, this Eagles team is slightly worse than last year's.

Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes on the Super Bowl LVII podium after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles.

Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes on the Super Bowl LVII podium after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35. (Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

According to Pro Football Reference, Philly had a +6.50 Simple Rating System (SRS) in 2022, which is down to +4.51 this season. SRS blends scoring margin with strength of schedule. KC has a +5.99 SRS in 2023, down from +6.24 SRS last year.

The Chiefs rank ahead of the Eagles in net expected points added per play, net yards per play, and net early-down success rate. Plus, Philadelphia's defense ranks 27th in 3rd-down conversion rate allowed entering Week 11 and 28th in red-zone scoring.

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's Full NFL Week 11 Betting Preview FT. Dan Zaksheske and Scott Martin

Kansas City's offensive line leads the NFL in ESPN's pass blocking win rate. The Eagles have one of the best pass rushes in the league but they struggle in coverage. Philly is 28th in opponent's QB Rating and 29th in opponent's passing yards per game.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes drops back to pass vs. the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes drops back to pass vs. the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Focus on Sport/Getty Images)

While the Chiefs haven't been as explosive through the air this year, they have the same pass catchers as last year's team. If Kansas City's offensive line can hold up Monday, Patrick Mahomes will carve the Eagles up.

Furthermore, Philadelphia doesn't have an answer for Travis Kelce. Philly lost both starting safeties and two linebackers in free agency this offseason. Pro Football Focus gives Kelce the best "tight end matchup" of Week 11.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce scores a TD vs. the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce scores a TD vs. the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. (Michael Chow/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Lastly, it feels like a majority of the market thinks the Chiefs aren't as good as last year and doesn't give the Eagles that same energy. There's going to be sharp action on both sides and the bets are split.

That said, the sportsbooks are making KC a little pricier as kickoff nears. I'm just going to put a Pizza Bet on the CHIEFS (-140) to win outright and enjoy the game. Hopefully, Mahomes pays for my Papa John's Monday.