Charles Schwab Challenge 2024: Outrights Bets, Finishing Position, One-And-Done
The PGA TOUR heads to the Lone Star State this week for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. This is a surprisingly loaded field. Most top 50 golfers on TOUR will skip next week’s RBC Canadian Open because it precedes three consecutive big boy tournaments, such as two "signature events" (Memorial Tournament and the Travelers Championship) and the 2024 U.S. Open.
Five golfers in the top 20 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) are teeing it up this week at Colonial, headlined by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, No. 9 Collin Morikawa, No. 10 Max Homa, No. 11 and 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year, Brian Harman, and No. 20 Keegan Bradley.
Seven former Charles Schwab winners are in this year’s field, including reigning Charles Schwab champion Emiliano Grillo and native Texan Jordan Spieth. I hit Grillo at 80-to-1 odds at last year's Charles Schwab, and frankly, I need to hit another outright at Colonial this season.
My PGA TOUR betting season has been downright pathetic. After I "took a bath" at last week's 2024 PGA Championship, my bankroll is -49.5 units (u) on TOUR this year. Even though I've sucked this season, I'm calling my shot and guaranteeing one of my outright bets win the 2024 Charles Schwab.
Charles Schwab Challenge 2024 Betting Card
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies and the PGA Tour.
‘Horses for the Course’
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks as of 12:30 p.m. ET Tuesday, May 21st.
Harris English (+3300)
Since I, and everyone else who bets golf, prioritizes Approach (APP) play, English doesn't rank very high in my Charles Schwab power rankings. He is 116th in Strokes Gained (SG): APP on the PGA TOUR in 2024. Despite his lackluster APP play, English is quietly having a solid season. He has two top 10s at the Sony Open (T10) and Genesis Invitational (seventh).
Plus, English has performed well in tough fields. He finished inside the top 20 in four "big boy" tournaments, such as The Sentry (T14), Genesis, THE PLAYERS Championship (T19), and the PGA Championship (T18). English made the cut at The Masters (T22), RBC Heritage (T28), and Wells Fargo Championship (T34); one major and two "signature events".
Harris English chips on the seventh hole during Round 3 of the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. (Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports)
Lastly, English is good in two areas that will help him contend in this easier field: Driving accuracy and putting. The University of Georgia alum is 14th in Total Driving on TOUR this season, 19th in fairway hit rate, and eighth in SG: Putting. Over his last 16 rounds on Bentgrass greens, English leads this field in SG: Putting, per Bet The Number.
BET 0.65u on Harris English (+3300) at DraftKings to win 21.45u.
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Tom Kim (+5000)
This is a value bet. By the odds, Kim is roughly the 19th- or 20th-most likely golfer to win the Charles Schwab. However, Kim is 26th in the OWGR, making him the eighth-highest-ranked player in this field. Kim isn't having as good of a year as I predicted he would at the beginning of the season. Yet, I've made money betting on him this year, so I have no hard feelings.
Also, his game is a perfect fit for Colonial Country Club, which rewards accuracy more than power. Kim is 14th in driving accuracy on TOUR in 2024. Sedgefield Country Club is a crossover course to Colonial. The 21-year-old got his first career win on TOUR at Sedgefield in the 2022 Wyndham Championship. Kim's best putting surface is Bentgrass and he's +6.4 SG: Putting over his last four starts.
Tom Kim hits from the fairway at the tenth hole during the second round of the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports)
Finally, Kim has gained strokes with his irons in all seven "signature events" or major starts on TOUR in 2024. He's only 107th in SG: APP this season. Again, I'm betting on Kim's ceiling rather than his recent form. Last season, the South Korean was eighth in SG: APP in his rookie season on TOUR. Colonial is a short course with "target golf" and Tom can fire at pins with the best of them.
Bet 0.5u on Tom Kim (+5000) at FanDuel to win 25u.
- I'm adding a top-20 on Kim (+188) at BetMGM: 0.8u to profit 1.5u.
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Chris Kirk (+6000)
According to Bet The Number, there are eight-plus APP shots from 125-175 yards per round at Colonial. Kirk is one of the best with his wedges and mid-irons on TOUR. Over the last 50 rounds with shot-link data, Kirk is third in this field in proximity to the hole from that distance, per Bet The Number. He is fourth on TOUR this season from 125-150 yards.
Moreover, I'm "buying low" on Kirk, who just missed the cut at the PGA Championship. Valhalla Country Club (course for the PGA Championship) is a "bomber's paradise" and Kirk is 109th in driving distance this year. Colonial is a much better course for Kirk, who is 16th in driving accuracy this season.
Chris Kirk poses with the Leonard trophy after winning the 2015 Charles Schwab Challenge, formerly known as the "Crowne Plaza Invitational", at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. (Scott Halleran/Getty Images)
Kirk won The Sentry in January and placed T10 at the RBC, both are "signature events" and was T16 at The Masters. He missed the cut at last year's Charles Schwab. That said, in 13 starts at Colonial, Kirk has finished inside the top 16 seven times, including a win at Colonial in 2015 when this tournament was called the "Crowne Plaza Invitational".
BET 0.35u on Chris Kirk (+6000) at BetMGM to win 21u.
- I'm adding a top 20 on Chris Kirk (+210) at BetMGM: 0.65u to profit 1.37u.
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Austin Eckroat (+6500)
The Oklahoma State graduate, and four-time All-American, broke his PGA TOUR maiden by winning the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches in March. That was played at the PGA National Resort, one of the toughest courses on TOUR. There is "water danger" on most holes at PGA National, so if Eckroat can win there, he'll be just fine at Colonial.
Austin Eckroat lines up a putt during the 2024 PGA Championship. (Clare Grant-USA TODAY Sports)
Over the last 50 rounds, Eckroat is fourth in this field for driving accuracy, 34th in SG: APP, and 13th in SG: OTT, according to Bet The Number. Eckroat is in good form and plays well in this part of the country. He finished T18 at last week's PGA Championship and 17th at the RBC. Eckroat was T2 in the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, and T16 in the 2023 Charles Schwab.
BET 0.33u on Austin Eckroat to win 21.45u at Bet365 (+6500).
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Lucas Glover (+6600)
Out of the five outright bets on my 2024 Charles Schwab betting card, Glover ranks the highest on my model at Bet The Number. He is fourth in my 2024 Charles Schwab power rankings: Eighth in driving accuracy, fifth in SG: APP, 12th in APP shots from 126-175 yards, 13th in SG: Around-the-Green (ARG), and eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 20 rounds.
Lucas Glover prepares for a shot on the sixth fairway in the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. (Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports)
Glover won back-to-back events last season at the 2023 Wyndham Championship and the FedEx St. Jude's Championship, the first playoff event in the FedExCup. His odds are so long at Colonial because he's one of the worst putters on TOUR. But, the winning scores for the past two Charles Schwabs were -8 and -9. With Glover's precise ball striking, he can card a -10 this year at Colonial.
BET 0.33u on Lucas Glover to win 22u at BetMGM (+6600).
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Additional Finishing Position Bets
Make all placement bets at BetMGM since it doesn't apply "dead heat" rules.
Tom Hoge Top-10 (+375): Bet 0.5u to profit 1.88u
These Charles Schwabs can turn into "pitch-and-putt" contests. Hoge is second in this field for SG: APP over the last 50 rounds, per Bet The Number. He has picked up strokes on the greens in 11 of his last 13 starts with shot-link data, according to DataGolf.com. The TCU alum is familiar with Texas winds and has two top-10s in "signature events" this season: T6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and eighth at the Genesis.
Billy Horschel Top-20 (+188): Bet 0.75u to profit 1.41u
After an awful 2022-23 season, Billy Ho is bouncing back this year. Horschel has four top-10s with a T8 at the 2024 PGA Championship and a win at the Corales Puntacana Championship. I'm factoring in driving accuracy and putting heavily into my 2024 Charles Schwab power rankings. According to Bet The Number, Horschel is 20th in driving accuracy over the last 50 rounds and fifth in SG: Putting on Bentgrass over the previous 16 rounds.
Billy Horschel lines up his putt on the 18th green during the final round of the 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course. (Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports)
Daniel Berger Top-20 (+275): Bet 0.5u to profit 1.38u
One of Berger's four career wins on the PGA TOUR is the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge. Berger is still finding his form after being sidelined with a back injury from the 2022 U.S. Open until The American Express in January. Regardless, Berger is still an accurate ball-striker and fifth in greens-in-regulation on TOUR this season. Since Berger hits fairways and generates scoring opportunities, I'll gamble on him at this price.
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Charles Schwab Challenge 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Harris English
So, I guess few people used Xander Schauffele at last week's PGA Championship. Despite my one-and-done pick for golf's second major missing the cut and bringing me zero dollars, Jon Rahm, I'm still in the money at the 2024 Mayo Cup. After the 18 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup. I'm tied for 630th out of 4,400 entries with $10,100,122 collected. If the league ended today, I'd win $400 on top of my $200 entry fee.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
- Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
- Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
- Min Woo Lee for the Valspar Championship: Missed cut for $0
- Keith Mitchell for the Houston Open: Missed cut for $0
- Corey Conners for the Valero Texas Open: T25 for $67,735
- Wyndham Clark for The Masters: Missed cut $0
- Cameron Young for the RBC Heritage: T62 for $43,600
- Adam Scott for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: $52,293
- Rory McIlroy for the Wells Fargo Championship: $3,600,000
- Jon Rahm for the PGA Championship: $0
Call it a hunch, but I'm convinced English plays well at Colonial this week. If English hits his irons well, he will finish inside the top 10. Harris is a true "win equity" with victories at the 2021 Travelers and 2021 Sentry. The other golfers I considered here are Kim and Kirk. However, I'm saving Kim as a contrarian play for a "signature event" or one of the remaining majors and English will have lower ownership than Kirk.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.