Chargers Should Steal Home Game Against Similar Teams

Texans vs. Chargers, 4:30 ET

Thanksgiving was a disaster for me with football plays, and Christmas Day wasn't much better, but I only had two looks that day. I went 0-2, so maybe I should just stop trying to play holiday games? The first half of the NFL season I was really strong, but this later half has been very tough on me with inconsistent (at best) results. With that being mentioned, feel free to fade or follow my play here as I provide a look for the game between the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers.

At the beginning of the year, I said the Texans would once again win the AFC South division. I don't know that it will happen, but it is still possible depending on what happens here and with the Jaguars. The point isn't really about if the play will cash or not, to be honest. If we went back seven weeks, we probably would be talking about this team not even making the playoffs. That's a drastic turnaround for a team in just a short period of time. They were 0-3 to start the year, losing to the Rams, Buccaneers, and Jaguars. Then they were able to destroy both the Titans and Ravens. A loss to Seattle, then beating the 49ers, and losing to the Broncos rounded out their 3-5 start. Since then, the Texans have won seven straight games, beating the Jaguars, Titans, Bills, Colts, Chiefs, Cardinals, and Raiders. Not all of those teams are all that impressive, but they ended the Chiefs season, they beat the Bills who are still a playoff team, and the Colts weren't in complete disarray when they played them either. They haven't given up more than 21 points in any of the past six games, and people have scored 21 or more on their defense just three times this season. They are truly elite on that side of the ball, and seem to have figured out enough of their offense.

The Chargers are in their own divisional battle, but like the Texans, they are in second place at the moment. They are 11-4, but the Broncos are sitting at 13-3. If they lose this game, the division crown goes to Denver. The Chargers have had an interesting season. They beat the Chiefs to start the year, which isn't quite as impressive as it was at the time, given what we know about Kansas City now. They beat the Raiders, and do own the tie-breaker over the Broncos because they beat them in Week 3. Then, for some reason, they lost to the Giants and the Commanders in back to back weeks. Beat the Dolphins (barely), and then lost to the Colts. Their other loss was at the hands of the Jaguars right before the Bye Week, and honestly, it was a full on beatdown. Since the Bye, the Raiders, Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys have all taken losses from the Chargers. Their defense has stepped up and has held opponents to 20 or fewer points in seven of the past eight games. 

This is a game with two defensive-minded teams. The truth is, when they do get to the playoffs, both teams will need to rely on that side of the ball in order to get them wins. I like CJ Stroud, I like Justin Herbert, but neither of them are having outstanding years. The total is low for a reason, and that always is a risk that we can get turnovers or something to push the total over without much effort. I'd be surprised to see both of these teams make it over 20 points, but a 23-17 win is completely possible. I'm taking the Chargers as I do prefer their quarterback, and he will at least be at home. I also think that the defenses are closer in talent than Stroud is to Herbert. Give me the Chargers moneyline.

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