CFP National Championship 2024-25 Odds And First Looks
Coach Jim Harbaugh finally did it. He led the Michigan Wolverines to a title with a 34-13 win over the Washington Huskies in the 2024 College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship. With that in mind, it's time to start building our college football betting portfolio for next season.
Last summer, I gave out the Over for Michigan and Washington's regular-season win totals and a future on the Wolverines to win the 2023-24 CFP at +900. I'm just trying to restore credibility after betting the Huskies plus the points in the title game.
Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh celebrates with the CFP Championship trophy after beating the Washington Huskies in the 2024 title game at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Heads up: A lot is changing in college football next season. The CFP moves from a four- to 12-team format. Ideally, this opens the door for more teams to win the title. However, it's probably going to come down to Georgia and Alabama again anyways.
Also, there's a ton of conference realignment to pay attention to. For instance, the Pac-12 is dead after USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington went to the Big Ten. The SEC poached Texas and Oklahoma. The Big XII and ACC got deeper but not tougher.
CFP 2024-25 National Championship Odds
The betting odds for the 2024-25 College Football Playoff (CFP) national champion at DraftKings Tuesday, January 9th.
College football is surprisingly more predictive than the NFL. Because of which, I'm not even going to screenshot the betting odds outside of the top-26 teams. The even-numbered rows is the only reason for Florida's inclusion (+15000).
Ole Miss (+1600)
The Rebels could be the 2024 Florida State Seminoles. Granted, the SEC is a much tougher conference than the ACC and is getting tougher by welcoming Texas and Oklahoma this season. But, the key to Florida State's success in 2023 was how many Seminoles returned to the team.
Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart returns for his senior season. Dart led the Rebels to their first 11-win season in program history and ranked third in total touchdowns (31) in the SEC. He could have the same type of year as now-former Florida State QB Jordan Travis.
Rebel, and First Team All-SEC, RB Quinshon Judkins transferred to Ohio State. Despite Judkins leaving, Ole Miss is still first in the transfer portal rankings as of January 9, per 247sports.com.
Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart and WR Tre Harris hold the Peach Bowl trophy after beating the Penn State Nittany Lions at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Furthermore, coach Lane Kiffin is confident they can replace Judkins' production. In fact, Mississippi sixth-year senior RB Ulysses Bentley IV averaged more yards per rush last season than Judkins.
Other notable returnees for the Rebels are two of their top-three WRs Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins and Second Team All-SEC TE Caden Prieskorn. Dart and Prieskorn were co-Offensive Players of the Game in Ole Miss's 38-25 win over Penn State in the Peach Bowl.
Finally, the Rebels are better than Oregon (+1100) and LSU (+1400) both of whom have better odds to win the CFP. LSU, and Heisman winning QB, Jayden Daniels is entering the 2024 NFL Draft. So is Oregon QB Bo Nix. I.e. there's value in Mississippi at these +1600 odds.
Clemson (+2000)
I could see a bounce-back year in 2024 for Dabo Swinney and Co. Clemson's nine wins last season was the program's fewest since 2010. Yet, everyone who follows college football knew the Tigers could have a down-season. Florida State was always winning the ACC last year.
Clemson's title hopes fall on the shoulders of sophomore QB Cade Klubnik. He's a five-star recruit who didn't live up to the billing last season. Klubnik was 10th in the ACC for QB Rating and fifth in total TDs responsible for (23).
Clemson Tigers QB Cade Klubnik throws a pass during TaxSlayer Gator Bowl vs. the Kentucky Wildcats at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida. (James Gilbert/Getty Images)
The Tigers are stacked with four- and five-star recruits. More importantly, Dabo is a two-time CFP champion and beat Alabama for both of his titles. Plus, the ACC is the easiest of the remaining "Power" conferences. Hence a good Clemson squad could waltz into the CFP.
Notre Dame (+2500)
I like this price and I like how Notre Dame builds its football team. The Fighting Irish always have an elite offensive line and a strong defensive front-seven. They also signed former Duke QB Riley Leonard out of the transfer portal.
Notre Dame found success signing former QB Sam Hartman in the transfer portal last offseason. Leonard was fifth in QB Rating in the ACC in 2022. But, he struggled last season while dealing with a ton of injuries last season. Behind Notre Dame's offensive line, Leonard could return to form.
Lastly, the Fighting Irish have a soft schedule in 2024, which may have kept them out of a four-team CFP but not a 12-teamer. If Notre Dame can finish 2024 with one loss, it'll be playing in the CFP in Jan. 2025.