Cease Will Lead Padres Over Giants

Padres vs. Giants, 4:35 ET

I’ve mentioned this before, but one of my favorite things about an MLB season is the hope that the beginning brings. I love the way that teams try to shake things up in the offseason and change directions. There are a number of pitchers who are starting out this season on a new team and have already made their debut for their new teams. Today, I have a play in a game with one team that has shaken up their roster basically every year to try and get the perfect combination. We are going to put a play in a game between the Padres and Giants. 

The Padres are a team that has been confounding for a few years now. They have World Series-level talent, but their results are the same as the Pirates or some other team that is continuously focused on rebuilding. In business terms, the return on investment is not there with this squad, and it really isn’t close. The Padres are off to an acceptable start, but the team could use a hot streak in order to shake a bit of the "underperforming" label from them even this early in the season. Today, they are sending Dylan Cease to the mound. Cease was an offseason pickup and one that seemingly was intended to replace Blake Snell’s production. In the first game, Cease allowed just two hits and two earned runs against these same Giants. He struck out six hitters and had two walks in that game. He has had a good track record against the Giants as well, so he could put in a great performance in this one.

Sep 3, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Francisco Giants manager Gabe Kapler walks to the mound during the fifth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Giants are on the opposite side of the spectrum for me. If the Padres are underperformers, I think the Giants are overperforming over the past few years. They don’t have megastars and they don’t have a ton of talent you’d pay great money to see. However, they keep fielding a winning team and finding ways to get the results you want. They may not have made the playoffs last season, but they were right there late in the year. The Giants have converted Jordan Hicks into a starter. He was a strong reliever for the past few years and at one point was a starter for the Cardinals, so they are taking a shot on him once again. He had a nice debut for the Giants as he went five scoreless innings and allowed just three hits. That game was against the Padres as well.

In this game, the goal is to predict which of these starting pitchers is likely to repeat his productivity. For me, I think Cease will be able to keep the Giants to two earned runs or fewer. On the other hand, I don't think that Hicks can repeat his performance. I really wouldn't be surprised to see an over in this game either. Typically, when two pitchers dominate one start, the next one is more of a hitters game. However, I'm going to take the Padres through five innings in this one. At -115, I think that Cease is the better pitcher and should be more reliable in this than Hicks will be. 

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