Cease Will Spoil Ohtani's Long Awaited Return To Mound

Padres vs. Dodgers, 10:10 ET

Things are heating up, my friends. Let me be clear, I am not talking about my picks, those have been okay overall, but have cooled off over the past few days. I'm talking about this NL West - there were two big headlines from yesterday. The Giants traded for a slugger yesterday, getting the Red Sox to part ways with Rafael Devers. This was a big pickup for a team that could use another bat in the lineup, and the Red Sox get to part ways with someone who is a bit of a headache. The other headline comes from one of the two teams in this game between the Padres and Dodgers.

The Padres are in third place now within the division. This is a division that has four very talented teams, and it will be competitive the entire season. For the year, the Padres are just eight games above .500. As a team, their stats make me think the Padres should be way better. Collectively, the team is hitting .249, but they only have 295 runs scored this year. The pitching staff has been surprisingly better than expected with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, they are also holding opponents to a .225 average. Those are all numbers that should be positioning themselves to win way more games. The good news for them is that they get their Ace, Dylan Cease, taking the ball for them. Cease hasn't had a great season, going just 2-5 for the year with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He did have a nice enough May, turning in three quality starts and not allowing more than three earned runs in any of the games. He didn't complete five innings in two of those starts though. So far in June, he has two starts, both against NL West teams, one of them being the Dodgers. He allowed three hits, five walks, and no runs in seven innings. He also struck out 11 hitters in that game. Overall, the Dodgers are hitting .257 against Cease.

Imagn/USA Today

The other headline that I alluded to in the NL West was in direct relation to tonight's starting pitcher. Before we get there, let's talk a bit about the Dodgers. They don't have the best record in the league, but they are in first place, and that's probably where they will be all season. Los Angeles is 14 games over .500, and as they get healthier, they should get even better. Their pitching staff has been the biggest question mark all year, but they are getting some pitchers back soon, including the one tonight. Shohei Ohtani is taking the mound for the first time since 2023. Remember, this man won a World Series and MVP award all while rehabbing so he can pitch. Ohtani was a potential Cy Young winner a few years back. While he won't likely compete for the award this season, it will be interesting to see how good he can be this year. I fully expect Ohtani to have three or fewer innings tonight. That means this is likely to be a bullpen game. 

My first instinct in this one is to take the over because I think the bullpen will allow some runs, and I think Cease will be hit a bit better than last week. I do think there is value on the Padres here, but Cease has not been all that great at Dodgers Stadium, but he has been good enough. I'll take a shot here, but just know this is a bit of a risky proposition to play a guy that just faced a team and did well a few days ago. I just can't pass the value when we can expect Ohtani to only go a few innings. Back the Padres here.

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