Catch A Couple Units With These Receiving Props

Chiefs vs. Eagles, 6:30 ET

Chiefs vs. Eagles, 6:30 ET

With each turn of the day on the calendar we get closer and closer to the big game. There are few days that get as much attention an publicity as the Super Bowl. Certainly nothing in the sporting world gets as much attention and with so many betting opportunities, we have to break them all down. That's what I'm here to do. I've already talked about the running games, and in this article I'll focus on the receiving props we need to examine for Super Bowl LIX as the Chiefs take on the Eagles.

If there is a knock on the Chiefs for the past couple of years it is that the Chiefs don't have a true #1 receiver. After they traded Tyreek Hill away, they've used a hodgepodge of different characters that could fill the void, but I wouldn't say are the go-to guy that many other teams have had. Patrick Mahomes hasn't put up the eye popping numbers the past two years either, but he's obviously done enough to get wins for the Chiefs. The Chiefs have Xavier Worthy, one of the fastest men in football, Marquise Brown, a guy that has been injured, Juju Smith-Schuster, and DeAndre Hopikins, both guys that are past their prime, but still reliable. The thing about the Chiefs is they will get the ball to everyone and get the ball to whoever is open. There doesn't seem to be a minimum targets per player situation. Worthy is the clear top option for them with 13 targets in the playoffs. I haven't mentioned Travis Kelce, the Tight End who also had the fewest yards and touchdowns of his career. I still believe the Chiefs need to get Kelce the ball. He has a reasonable yardage total of 61.5. The Eagles have the best-passing defense in football and allowed the fewest yards to tight ends this season. They did allow five touchdowns to them though. I'd probably be more confident in Kelce hauling in a touchdown than I would in going over his yardage. To examine the receivers, Worthy is the most likely candidate to break free. He had 59 receptions this season and 27 of them were for 10 or more yards. They are going to use him in screens, deep passes, and more. I like his over, but I'm not rushing to the window to play it. I like DeAndre Hopkins total of just 11.5 a bit in this one. He has only seen three targets and has just 11 yards in the playoffs, but he still has the advantage of being athletic to get a jump ball if needed. The word of caution I would give you is that the Chiefs will want to keep Barkley off the field and they don't go for one specific receiver. 

On the other hand, the Eagles have two reliable receivers - AJ Brown, one of the best in the game, and DeVonta Smith who can stretch the field for them. They get almost all of the receiving targets for the team. Dallas Goedert, the tight end, has led the team in targets this postseason along with Brown. Goedert has the best chance to make an impact as the Chiefs have allowed the most yards to tight ends in football this season. The Chiefs will likely have Trent McDuffie as their cornerback covering AJ Brown. I really like Goedert to go over his receiving total, but I am a bit more sheepish on taking Brown's total. Smith has averaged about 40 yards per game in the playoffs, so his total of 51.5 is probably reflective of him getting a few more targets because Brown will be shadowed. Brown also has only caught half of his targets. Brown has a total of 5.5 receptions and I think it is a bit too high, but I don't want to pay the -141 juice for the under. Goedert is at 4.5 and I think he gets over that total with ease. Smith is also at 4.5 but he has 12 receptions on 12 targets. I'd probably stay away from this one.

I'm not as bullish on the receiving props as I am on other markets. Here is what I'll play for receiver props:

  • Dallas Goedert over 52.5 yards
  • Goedert over 4.5 receptions
  • Isiah Pacheco 1st Quarter receiving  over 0.5 yards +275 - purely about the value and thought that he might get a pass in the quarter on 3rd down.