Can't Pass This Value On Skenes

Pirates vs. Mets, 7:10 ET

This is a really fun time of the season for sports. We have the best time of the year for the NBA - the playoffs, when teams actually care and usually try hard. The NHL playoffs also are running - some of the most entertaining games of the sports calendar all year long. The next part is baseball, when you are trying to figure out baseball teams. You want to know which teams are the surprises - and which are the ones that are going to potentially make a run this year like one of the teams in today's game did last year. Today's game features the Pirates and the Mets, the team that turned their fate around midseason last year. 

The Pirates are not going to turn their season around. I mean, not as currently constructed at least. This is a bad team, they don't have enough offensive talent, and they really don't have enough pitching to compensate for the lack of offense. Pittsburgh is just 14-27 for the season, and a lot of their struggles have come on the road. The Pirates road record is just 5-14 for the season. For the year, the team is averaging just three runs per game and hitting just .220 for the season. Today they get the one bright spot for their entire franchise taking the mound. Paul Skenes has been great since he came up last year, and is pitching well this season, too. Skenes is 3-4 with a 2.77 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. He has made eight starts this year and only one of them has seem him allow more than three earned runs. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of the eight games. One thing that has me a bit concerned is that he's allowed four walks in each of his past two starts. He has only faced Mets hitters in 14 at-bats and has given up three hits in that time.

Jun 25, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher David Peterson (23) pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets don't want to turn their season around, because that would mean they would be going from one of the best teams in baseball to missing the playoffs. With the amount of money they've paid to their players, they better be winning. The offense has looked great behind the success of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. There is potential they could be even better if Juan Soto can get things going to the level he is capable of. At 26-15 there isn't a ton of room for improvement, but I do think they still can get better. Their home record is 15-4 for the season as well. David Peterson takes the ball today and brings a 3.10 home ERA. That ERA is actually higher than his overall ERA at 3.05. His WHIP for the season is 1.36, which is pretty high as well and to me indicates that the defense might be helping him quite a bit. He has allowed at least seven baserunners in six of his seven starts. He has held Pirate hitters to just eight hits in 40 at-bats. 

If you were to look at lineups, there is no question which team is better. The Mets are the better team, have the better offense, better record, and even have a better bullpen. However, that doesn't matter all that much when the Pirates are offering the better starter for today's game. Skenes is better than Peterson and at the number we are getting, we won't get an opportunity to play him very often. I'll take my chances on the Pirates winning after five on the moneyline. Not quite sure the Pirates will win the entire game, but I think they have the first five innings. 

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