Burnes Will Cruise Against Former Team

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks, 8:10 ET

The psychology of sports interests me almost as much as the results of a game. I find it fascinating how things work in professional leagues - there are moments where teams dismiss of players and staff for seemingly no reason, such as the Nuggets in the past few days. There are returns to places they once called home, such as Luka Doncic coming back to Dallas also a few days ago. These are both NBA examples, but I still think it is interesting to think about over all sports. We have a homecoming of sorts today with the Brewers taking on the Diamondbacks.

I wrote about the Brewers the other day, and I ended up taking a loss. It wasn't a loss on the game, it was just a loss for my play... well one of them. The first five moneyline ended up being a push, but the Rockies didn't really score against them in the first five innings. They then proceeded to score seven total runs in the game. That's kind of how it has been against the Brewers. They are inconsistent at best to this point in the season. Some games the offense looks great, and others the offense is brutal. Same with the pitching staff. I'm sure that this is normal over the course of the season, but with the start of the season it is easier to see the inconsistencies. Today they send out a pitcher who has been consistent for them this season, Chad Patrick. Patrick is 1-0 with a 2.45 EAR and a 1.27 WHIP. This is actually the fourth game of Patrick's season as he had one relief appearance to start the year. He has no experience against the Diamondbacks, so he might have a bit of an edge the first time through the lineup.

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick (39) throws during the first inning of their game agains the Cincinnati Reds Sunday, April 6, 2025 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

The Diamondbacks are not off to a much different start than that of the Brewers. They are expected to be one of the better teams in the National League and after making it to the World Series two years ago, they have reinvested into the team. The offense was surprisingly good last year, and even two years ago. What is interesting to me about the Diamondbacks is that their hitting has been consistent in the past couple of years. Can they produce a good offense once again? The start of this year seems to indicate that they can. Even their worst hitters right now have some pop right now. If the offense works, the plan has to be to get Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and now Corbin Burnes. Burnes, the former Brewer, takes on his club today. This is Burnes third team in three years. His first two games with the Diamondbacks haven't been great, but now he gets to make his home debut. Against the Yankees and Nationals, he has allowed six earned runs in 9.1 innings. The concern isn't so much about the inflated ERA of 5.79, but more that he has a 1.93 WHIP. Seven walks and 11 hits in two games is a lot for Burnes. The Brewers hitters who have faced him have actually played rather well against him, going 5-for-16.

This is a game where one pitcher certainly has a better pedigree, but I'm not sure that we can just blindly take Burnes in this spot. I do think his home debut should go better than the first two games that he's had. Patrick has looked good, but he is a reliever and the Brewers bullpen gives me a bit of pause. This is a game to take the Diamondbacks on the run line. Even if Burnes struggles a bit, I think the Diamondbacks offense and the Brewers bullpen will contribute to a big win for Arizona. 

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