Browns Defense Will Show Up For First Time All Season On The Road

Browns vs. Texans, 4:30 ET

I have one goal for the NFL Playoffs: Dominate. The last week of the NFL season was nearly flawless as I continuously pounded the books. Maybe it was luck, maybe it was just that some picks were obvious based on situations and rosters. As someone that bets an insane amount of NBA games, I can tell you that doesn't always matter. This weekend it did and the NFL paid off. I'm coming for some cash once again and it starts with the Browns vs. Texans.

In reality, the Browns won more games than the Texans did this season. On paper, the Browns are probably the better team. I'd be interested to see what a GM would say about which roster he would rather have. Cleveland was good this year but just 3-5 away from home, going 8-1 in Cleveland. It almost doesn't matter to me what the record was in any situation because they went 11-6 and had four different starting quarterbacks this year - five if you count Jeff Driskel in Week 18 when the game meant nothing to them. Somehow this team is finding a way and it appears to be their defense. On the season they have been very strong and kept opponents off the board - when they are at home. On the road, they've allowed almost 30 points per game to opponents. They did head on the road a few weeks ago on Christmas Eve and beat Houston. That game is a bit misleading because the Browns faced Davis Mills. If Cleveland is going to win this game, they need to do a better job on defense overall, especially with CJ Stroud on the field.

CJ Stroud hopes one day his father, who is incarcerated, can come see him play a live NFL game. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The Texans were the biggest surprise in football to me. My friend, and fellow Outkick writer, Geoff Clark, said he expected them to be this good. He's a better football analyst than I am, and was clearly correct about his assessment this season. The defense is young, talented, and hungry. The offense isn't exactly what I would consider explosive, but they certainly have weapons. Nico Collins has been great for them this season. Devin Singletary has been reliable all year, and they have security blankets like Dalton Shultz to help when they need it. The Browns defense has been good, and has proven they can stop opposing quarterbacks with talent this year. Here is a few that they've beaten: Joe Burrow (3 points), Brock Purdy (17 points), Lamar Jackson (33 points). Those are three of the better quarterbacks in the league and they beat Jackson on the road. Stroud has been outstanding this year, but the question has to be if the first playoff game will give him jitters.

In this game, the Browns are the favorite. They definitely have the veteran quarterback, but that doesn't always matter. Cleveland has overcome a lot this year, and I do think they can beat the Texans. The problem I have is they probably need to win on offense, because the defense has shown they can't really win on the road. I picked the Browns as a potential AFC winner, so I won't abandon them now, but I'm taking the under on 44.5 points. If they win, it will likely be because the defense came through. If they lose, the total should fly over as the Texans will probably hang 28+ on them. In this case, I think the under is more likely.

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