Braves Can Take Series Opener From The Dodgers

Braves vs. Dodgers, 10:10 ET

You probably already looked at the two teams playing and were juiced for the game, right? I mean, how could you not want to bet on a game with the two best teams in the National League squaring off. Even if this is somewhat meaningless baseball in May, this is a matchup that is too good to resist. For the record, I do think it is typically a terrible idea to just bet on a game because it is on or in primetime or because of the matchup. However, in this case, I do have a good feeling about this play and it just so happens to be a battle between two juggernauts, the Braves and the Dodgers. 

The reality of the Braves is that they will likely win another 100 games this season, but you have to wonder if that will translate to postseason success. Winning the World Series typically comes down to whichever team is the hottest at the time, which is why you see so many Wild Card teams make runs. They sneak into the playoffs and keep playing good baseball. The Braves did win a few years ago so it isn’t like they have missed out on a ton of opportunities. Overall, this team is probably the most balanced of any in the league. The hitting is disgustingly good with both a high average and a ton of dingers. It has to be a luxury to have seven or eight guys that can put the ball over the fence with regularity. The pitching hasn’t been quite as sharp as you need it to be, but they have enough arms (and offensive support) that it doesn’t really matter. Tonight, they are putting a veteran, Charline Morton, on the hill in hopes of slowing down the other great offense in this gaem. Morton has been strong this season with a 3.60 ERA over 30 innings and sporting a 1.13 WHIP. He has only thrown to road starts, but one was a disaster as he allowed six earned runs over 5.2 innings to the Marlins – the Braves still won the game 9-7. He is coming off of his best start of the year with seven scoreless innings against the Guardians, the Braves lost in extra innings. Go figure. Dodgers hitters, especially Freddie Freeman, have been good against Morton. They’ve got a .272 batting average and about 25% of their hits have gone for extra bases. 

Apr 13, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Gavin Stone (71) throws against the San Diego Padres during the second inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

If we want to talk about great regular season teams that tend to not get as far as they’d like the in the playoffs, the Dodgers are probably the poster boys for that category. The team is well constructed and deep. They have one of the best offenses in the game and consistently win during the regular season. They also are likely to win over 100 games, but I can’t say I’d count on them to do much in the postseason. Why? They don’t have the pitching at the moment. Things can always change, and they’ve shown they are willing to get arms when needed (now that everything has been proven otherwise, why not bring back Trevor Bauer?). They will get back Walker Buehler soon, but I’m not sure that is enough. In this game, they are putting Gavin Stone on the hill. He’s been fine for the Dodgers with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, but again, not someone you want to rely on in the playoffs. He has put up quality starts in two of his last three games, so maybe he is figuring something out. Braves hitters are 5-for-14 against Stone in the past with three extra-base hits. 

The Braves offense struggled against Seattle, scoring just eight runs in three games and five of them came in the finale. I can’t expect them to be held down for too long of a stretch, but as we’ve seen in the playoffs, good pitching can beat them. The problem is that the Dodgers starter doesn’t fall into that category for me in this one. I’ll back the Braves to win this game and hope Morton can get the win. I do lean toward the over as well. 

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