Boston Will Beat Braves To Earn Series Split

Braves vs. Red Sox, 1:35 ET

Monday was a great day as we went 2-0, but yesterday was one of the bad days as we went 0-2. There still have been more 2-0 days on the campaign than 0-2, but they are frustrating when they happen. Baseball is one of my more successful sports to bet on, but like any sport, you get stretches of struggle. You just have to navigate through those stretches and ensure your bankroll doesn't run out before you're success comes back. Today, I am locking in a play on the first game of the day as the Braves take on the Red Sox. 

If you're a team with World Series expectations, and your best player, and former MVP goes out of the season, what do you do? Do you reshift your expectations and start thinking about next year? Do you try and trade for another big name to fill that void? What happens when the loss of this player comes just a few months after the loss of one of your best starters? These are questions that the Braves have had to answer this season. On the surface, you'd expect everyone to say the typical clichés of "Next man up" or "We've got enough in our lockeroom." However, losing two of your best players is not easy for any sport or any team. The Braves haven't had a lot of questions with their club in the past few years, but this year we see more questions than answers as we are in the first week of June. The Braves haven't really seen a drop off yet in their production, but it will probably be noticeable over time. While I've talked a lot about the loss on offense, but one guy that has had an opportunity to pitch due to injury is today's starter, Spencer Schwellenbach. Schwellenbach has made just one start this season but it wasn't too bad. He was able to turn in five innings against the Nationals where he allowed five hits and three earned runs. That was at home, so I am a bit nervous that his first road start could be an issue. 

May 29, 2024; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach (56) tosses the ball for a force out after fielding a ground ball against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Red Sox are playing better baseball than I thought they would this season. I probably sound like a broken record, but I would've expected them to be the clear worst team in the American League East. However, they remain competitive and have put together a surprisingly good campaign to this point, even if they are a game under .500 for the season. As usual, the team is led by Rafael Devers who is doing his typical production for the club. The team overall is hitting .242, which is just eight points lower than the Braves, but they've scored just one fewer run than the Braves this season, and have hit three more homers. If your offense is in line with Atlanta, something has to be going right. The Red Sox pitching has been even better, with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Both of these numbers are better than what Atlanta is producing, but the Red Sox are a game under .500 and the Braves are 10 games over. Today, they send out Nick Pivetta to the hill in hopes of splitting the two game set with the Braves. Pivetta is probably better than his numbers indicate. For the season, he is 2-4 with a 4.08 ERA. If you take out two games where he allowed five earned runs to the Brewers and Braves in each game, he has allowed six earned runs over 28 innings this season. 

Pivetta has faced the Braves once already this season as mentioned, and yes he did allow five earned runs in the game. Three of them came via the long ball. That was a bit of an anomaly for the the Red Sox right-hander, but we know the Braves can hit a lot of homers if given the opportunity. I think the Red Sox should win this game though as I am not confident that Schewellenbach will be able to navigate this Red Sox lineup. I'll back Boston here to win the game. 

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