Books Are Overvaluing Potential Turnaround From Former Ace

Phillies vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET

It was a good week, but it was a bad weekend as I lost both of my MLB plays. I thought that we would see some offense in the game between the Brewers and Cardinals, but the pitching crushed it. Unfortunately, it didn't work out for me and anyone who tailed the bet. Hopefully, you all faded, and regardless of the outcome, I hope everyone had a great Father's Day. Today we shift our focus to the game between the Phillies and the Marlins in an NL East battle. 

The Phillies are one of the better teams in the league, and after one stretch where they looked like they were really stumbling, the team has found itself with a record 13 games above .500. They are even above .500 on the road, which cannot be said about a lot of the teams in the league. I can't say there were ever many concerns about the offense, but the pitching staff wasn't really an area that I thought was going to be a strength. They had Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, but Nola was not very good this season. They have found success in other places, including today's starter Mick Abel who is one of the higher rated prospects in the game. Abel is 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP - only in 15.1 innings. His starts have gotten progressively worse, but he still seems to have enough talent to compete with most teams. The Phillies bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, so there are some concerns about if Abel can't go too deep into the game. They are playing good baseball, having won their past four games.

Sep 3, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA;  Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The Marlins are not a good baseball team, and essentially have the opposite record of the Phillies for the season. If you're one of the 10 Miami fans in existence, you're probably looking forward to the trade deadline instead of anything else. We know they won't make the playoffs, and we know they won't win a Wild Card and probably won't be competitive for the next couple of years. If anything, the Marlins are going to build their team by trading away anyone of value this season. The big question mark hovering around their team is if they can get some value from today's starter, Sandy Alcantara. He was the Cy Young winner a few seasons ago, but he has been terrible in his return season from injury. Alcantara would've returned a haul a few years ago, but now, your hoping someone pays for his upside instead of his current 3-7 record, 7.14 ERA, and a 1.49 WHIP. How much is rust versus him just not being a good pitcher any longer? Keep in mind after his Cy Young season, he had an ERA of 4.14 the next season. Perhaps, though, he has turned a corner in June. He has two quality starts, and has allowed just two earned runs in 12 innings. Phillies hitters have kind of always had his number, hitting .306 against him. 

This is an interesting line - the books seem to be adjusting to Alcantara's current form, which is good. However, they also seem to factor in that Abel will have some growing pains. That's the only explanation I can find for the reason this game has the line that they have. I don't have a play on the total one way or another I'm going to take the Phillies for the game. I don't trust either bullpen and simply put, I like the Phillies offense much more than the Marlins. 

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