Books Have Dropped Brewers Too Far Down For NL Central

Divisions in baseball can typically have some good value for bettors. Last season didn’t end with many surprises – depending on how you feel about the Baltimore Orioles I suppose. However, last year we had the Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Twins, Astros, and aforementioned Orioles. Most of those were the favorites at the beginning of the season. Let’s take a look at the NL Central this year – a division last year that had a lot of surprises, and this year has co-favorites to take the division title.

St. Louis Cardinals +180 

What a disastrous season for the St. Louis Cardinals last year. I was big on them at the beginning of last season. They had the reigning MVP, a few nice arms in the rotation, and good players overall. They added catcher Willson Contreras in the offseason, and I expected their offense to be so good that it almost wouldn’t matter how bad the pitching performed. This season they didn’t do much to bolster the team. They added Sonny Gray, who is injured right now, Kyle Gibson, a decent enough starter, and Lance Lynn who might not have much left in the tank. Their hitting got another bump with Matt Carpenter. I was burned last year and don’t think I’ll take another shot on them this year even if I do think they bounce back.

Chicago Cubs +180

The Cubs were the "close but no cigar" team last season. A late season collapse cost David Ross his managerial job and the Cubs a chance at the playoffs. They signed Dansby Swanson last offseason and he made an immediate impact. They also took a shot on Cody Bellinger and he rewarded them with a great season. They did (finally) resign Bellinger on what is essentially a "prove it" contract. The other involvement they’ve had was receiving Michael Busch, a projected DH, and starting pitcher Shota Imanaga. Who knows what the Japanese import will bring for the club, but they let go of Marcus Stroman in the process. If he can’t replicate Stroman’s success, this is a loss overall. They did add Craig Counsell, but he may only matter if the division and Wild Card races are as tight as they were last season. 

Cincinnati Reds +350 

The Reds were surprising last season. I expected them to be one of the worst teams in the division last season, but they came out of nowhere and won 82 games. The team did have a -38 run differential, but the Diamondbacks were -15 and they made the World Series. This team pretty much brings back the same players as last season, but they did add Jeimer Candelario. He’s an upgrade for the team, and someone they can put in the middle of the order, but I don’t consider him a difference maker. They have two new starters in the rotation that could be impactful. Elly De La Cruz wont be a shock to the division any longer, but if he is as good as last year, the Reds will at least be in contention when we get to September. 

Milwaukee Brewers +700

The Brewers lost Corbin Burnes via trade this offseason, and their manager went to the Cubs. The team won 92 games last year and now we expect their foes to just overthrow them? Not so fast. They picked up Rhys Hoskins from free agency, they added Jakob Junis, and DL Hall to their rotation, and a few other guys to round out their bench and lineup. I think the Brewers are being disrespected a bit here. Christian Yelich hasn’t been the same player he was in his MVP season, but he played well last year. The Cubs and Cardinals have glaring flaws, and no team improved in a huge way. At +700 take the Brewers to win. There is a ton of value for this and they could win the division with 87 wins. 

Pittsburgh Pirates +1600

To their credit, they played well last season with a pretty young roster and not much else to speak of. Mitch Keller was a nice surprise for them. This year the team is fairly similar to last year, but they did spend a little bit of money. I don’t think they are quite ready this year and have a bit more work cut out for them. There is value, but I really don’t think this hits. 

My bet will be on the Brewers at +700.

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